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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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4. velj |
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Is it still alive? pic.twitter.com/uAceSocP0S
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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3. velj |
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@ me you coward
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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28. sij |
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Uber as universal basic (labor) income
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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21. sij |
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Worth noting, the examples here all operate through capital accumulation — they would still predict zero effect of money on TFP (up to measurement issues?)
Effect on TFP seems like a hallmark of LR non-neutrality
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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21. sij |
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I have my own doubts about the methods, but if you know of any better empirical evidence on this question, I would be very curious
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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21. sij |
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If there is other evidence using an equally credible* identification strategy, I'd be very curious
*though subjective; and though this has its own problems; etc
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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20. sij |
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There are (very) important reasons to be skeptical of the identification; but IMO the paper is still using a creative method to tackle a very important question
Big, _if_ true!
twitter.com/BasilHalperin/…
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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20. sij |
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File under "big if true": new Jorda, Singh, and Taylor paper uses trilemma IV and finds that
Tight monetary policy lowers productivity in the (12y) long run (!)
=> Expansionary monetary policy boosts long-run productivity (!)
So money is not neutral?
nber.org/papers/w26666.… pic.twitter.com/XedqHcaUqh
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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19. sij |
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=> Maybe implications for fasting research? (cc perhaps @s_r_constantin) mobile.twitter.com/the_lagrangian…
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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19. sij |
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Re: animal models
Hear the Eric-@BretWeinstein podcast? Claims:
1. Lab mice in US come from two labs
2. Breeding mice killed after ~8 months because useless
=> no selection pressure from cancer
=> lab mice have super long telomeres
=> corrupted science
stitcher.com/podcast/kast-m…
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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17. sij |
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Not sure I follow -- if the exogeneity condition is violated at all, you do not have identification
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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17. sij |
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This would suggest JST *underestimate* effect sizes.
Problem: "supply shocks" cause the bias to go the other direction
(Problem is even worse if shocks are asymmetric)
(Hard to fit in a tweet; I've been tempted to blog this, not sure if appropriate with a working paper...)
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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17. sij |
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Problem:
1. Negative shock ("China blows up") hits BOTH
2. Fed lowers i, so HK has to lower i
3. Lower i offsets shock in HK
4. Regressing y on i in HK => looks like monetary policy does nothing
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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17. sij |
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Concrete example: HK pegged to USD
Ideal:
1. Negative shock hits US, not HK
2. Fed lowers i, so HK has to lower i
3. Exogenously lower i in HK, but no shock there, means boom in HK
=> 4. Can estimate impact of monetary policy shocks on HK economy
(1/2)
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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To emphasize — this is exactly the conclusion of the last decade of debate over cross-sectional identification in macro. You need a model to go from PE to GE, and otherwise you’re diffing out the interesting stuff aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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Causal inference in general equilibrium is really hard, engrave it on my tomb stone
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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You can’t IPO if you’re bankrupt because your competitor won all the visa lotteries
I agree with your larger point that it is in fact positive sum, but this study tells us *nothing* about that (without writing down a GE model to extrapolate)
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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The paper has been widely misinterpreted on twitter, unfortunately (worth noting: the authors are careful not to draw inappropriate inferences) twitter.com/BasilHalperin/…
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Basil Halperin
@BasilHalperin
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15. sij |
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(Obligatory PS that more immigration would be good anyway)
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