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Horace Dediu
Apple Watch update. 46 million sold. User base likely 40 to 43 million.
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Nick Ellis 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Not bad at all...
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Michael Birenbach 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Still using my first version. Awesome device.
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Vlad Preoteasa 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Do you think they will untether Watch from iOS and bring it to other platforms? I think Watch on other platforms (or stand alone) is key to Apple services growth.
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @vlad_preoteasa
Apple Watch will be an iPhone-attached device or an standalone device.
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Vlad Preoteasa 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
So Apple services go as Apple devices go.
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @vlad_preoteasa
That’s how I see it. 1.3 billion devices in use is the signal for what to track as addressable market. Subscriptions now at 270 million might track toward that upper bound. One billion subscriptions sounds like a good target.
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @vlad_preoteasa
Note that since Apple’s services are a subscription model, the addressable market is not total population (as in harvesting operations like FB and GOOG). It has to be qualified by an ability to pay.
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Vlad Preoteasa 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Safe bet on iOS customer base.
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casper 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
I think other companies would love to have a stand alone business as big as the  watch
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @vlad_preoteasa
It should be noted that iOS base becomes the automatic qualifier for all subscriptions, not just Apple’s. Publishers, content, games, etc. will all gravitate to that base as it’s a proven pre-qualified audience. This is by design.
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @caspercdn
It the biggest watch brand by revenue in the world.
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casper 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Any comparisons against other non watch companies you have handy?
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12 Seconds Later 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco @reneritchie
Apple Watch estimate update.
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Diggory 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Sorry if I’m being stupid, but are you implying that only 3 to 6 million users out of 46m units sold upgraded?
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @diggory
No, devices in use include those handed down to others. In my family every Apple watch is still in use even though generations are upgraded. This is true for all other Apple devices.
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Diggory 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
Fair enough, although I upgraded gen 0 to 3 and wouldn’t give anyone my zero: far too slow and battery performance not so good now… I suppose I ought to eBay it….
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @diggory
My son and mother are both on Gen 0 and love it.
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Horace Dediu 2 May 18
Replying to @caspercdn
My comparison in the past has been to the iPod. It’s a question of when the Watch becomes bigger than the iPod ever was.
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casper 2 May 18
Replying to @asymco
True. ‘When’, not if.
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