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Armando
Contributing Editor, Daily Kos
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
It’s true Nelson has to win the majority of added votes (or subtracted votes- see email ballots) but we don’t know at what rate. If 30,000 votes are added, Nelson has to win these 21500 to 8500 more or less. That’s doable in Florida imo. Think if 2/3 come from Dem counties.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
The key is the average. It’s not a 50/50 coin. The improperly rejected ballots are going to overwhelmingly be Democratic.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
Fl-Sen is much more likely to flip than GA-7 imo. I’d bet anyone the % gain in Florida will be greater than the percentage gain in Georgia. By a lot.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
And of course Nelson comes up way short - 10,000 short. The difference in Florida is pretty obvious imo. Florida has paper ballots. Florida has a ton of under/overvotes- most in Dem strongholds. Minnesota by contrast runs extremely clean elections with much less ballot problems.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
Here’s your better argument- Silver is wrong to think the 500 vote margin in GA-7 is swingable. Minn Senate 2008 recount only swung about 550 votes out of 2.4 million cast. At the rate the GA-7 race only swings about 55 votes. And it gets worse- Georgia has electronic no paper.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @Adorably_Nerdy
That makes no sense as a defense of Silver. A 500 vote margin in a 250,000 vote race is the equivalent of a 16,000 vote margin in an 8,000,000 vote race. It’s fucking math.
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Armando retweeted
Jon Ralston 2h
Instead of listening to the blathering of conspiracy theorists and failed party chairs, if you want to know why there was a blue wave in Nevada this year, read tomorrow for a deep dive into how it happened. And follow us. And become a donor. You will not regret it.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @armandodkos
I seriously don’t understand how Silver, who is of course a numbers wizard, doesn’t get this.
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Armando 2h
500 votes out of 250,000 is the equivalent of 16,000 votes out of 8 million.
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Armando 2h
Seriously, Avenatti is a million times more acceptable.
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Armando 2h
The addition of Maxine Waters is a revealing window. He’s a stone cold racist. Anyone supporting or promoting this racist is despicable.
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Armando 2h
Replying to @stevesingiser
What was the Senate spread?
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Armando retweeted
Bill Simmons 3h
Imagine if Le’Veon Bell was down 24-22 in his contract holdout and he needed a 3-pt kick to win it...
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Armando 3h
1993 and 1994 were really something for Oscar nominated movies.
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Armando 3h
Totally agree. Tupac was a god.
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Armando 3h
Well it depends on what you define as their art.
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Armando 3h
But that’s the point! The Dead are more than just the music.
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Armando 3h
Nelson’s gonna win.
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Armando retweeted
Marc E. Elias 5h
This is exactly why we need to make sure that counties have the time to conducts a full and accurate recount. .
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Armando retweeted
Craig T Smith 3h
Gop county clerk just admitted he counted fax and email ballots after gop sec of state told him they are illegal. He said several other counties did it as well. No wonder wants to stop the count.
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