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Anthony Masiello
The South Pacific Anticyclone is back. Here is a 10 day moving average (since 6/1) of SLPa, courtesy of JMA. Their description: "contours show normal sea level pressure anomalies at intervals of 2 hPa. Vectors denote 10-m wind anomalies (m/s) in the tropical region (30°N-30°S)."
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Anthony Masiello Jul 8
Replying to @antmasiello
It has been associated with an unrelenting source of -AAM between 0-30°S (through the frictional torque):
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Anthony Masiello Jul 8
Replying to @antmasiello
The 850mb u-wind anomalies in the S PAC have become all-too-familiar looking for the first half of Austral Winter (+SAM/expanded MMC appearance). There is more to this, too, besides subseasonal to seasonal variability.
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Anthony Masiello Jul 8
Replying to @antmasiello
The 10-30°S belt has become increasingly negative while the 40-60°S belt has become increasingly positive in most data sets since 1950. While ERA is not shown, it is strongly correlated to these from 1979-2018 (its r exceeds +0.95 for all sets).
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Anthony Masiello Jul 8
Replying to @antmasiello
Saying anything definitive about the SH is of course tough, but it's the best we've got. Using the 20CRV2c set back through 1860 and running a 15 season smoothing, we can see that these changes recently are dramatic. The expansion of the Hadley / MMC for early winter is implied:
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forecastguy (Jay Cali) Jul 8
Replying to @antmasiello
Nice analysis.
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Anthony Masiello Jul 8
Replying to @forecastguy
thanks, Jay. It's not as catchy as hurricanes, heatwaves, earthquakes and DC flooding, but I do try. :)
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