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@analogist_net | |||||
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Honestly some of the best overview guidelines I found in the 2007 community mitigation guidelines (stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425), which has been superceded by... a much shorter version without these rule-of-thumb figures pic.twitter.com/kLhNDmW1DY
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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I’m definitely not an infectious disease professional of any kind but it totally makes sense that death (esp in elderly, underlying conditions, complications) are going to register much faster in these very early days while the recovered cases wait for the 7 day green light
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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(And the milder cases disproportionally not be present in the the already overburdened, heavily triaged health system at all)
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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For takes from actual infectious disease experts @EpiEllie’s list is excellent twitter.com/i/lists/122086…
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Dan Kaminsky
@dakami
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29. sij |
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What’s your take (heh) on what people are getting wrong?
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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I actually don’t have a good sense of what people in general think about the outbreak at all… Which is probably not dissimilar to the public re: infosec
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Dan Kaminsky
@dakami
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29. sij |
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I don’t have a good sense of how real the “R0==3.8” “thermonuclear epidemic” fear reaction is, or should be. That number, and China’s apparent reaction (no international conferences for six months) is ... new data and evidenced behavior.
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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Oh, definitely ignore that guy, who is not to be taken seriously. (Best people can tell he's trying to McAfee himself for a political run). R0's consistently settling down between 2 and 3 from multiple groups; China's measures no one knows whether great or counterproductive yet
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Dan Kaminsky
@dakami
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29. sij |
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What R0 was SARS?
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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Supposed to be 2-5 centered around 3 I believe
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James Wu
@analogist_net
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29. sij |
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This was from earlier in the week, when there's only been one early R0 estimate twitter.com/ferrisjabr/sta…
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