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Albert Edwards
Economist, Global Strategist & uber bear. High point of my 35 career in The City? Invented the term "Noddynomics". Surely there's more!
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Albert Edwards retweeted
Julien Bittel, CFA 11h
Knock, knock...
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Albert Edwards 14h
Replying to @htsfhickey
Haha, we now have trigger warnings attached to their interviews. Maybe the “cash coming out of their ears”, comment is too scary! Perhaps I will put a warning at the top of my research, “Those of a nervous disposition might be upset at some of the ideas contained in this note.”
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Albert Edwards Oct 22
Replying to @dylangrice
Hmmm, I have an exception. When I was 23 I rewired my entire house with the aid of a basic diy guide (lighting and sockets). I remember I had ripped up every 3rd floorboard to drill through the joists. It was a death trap returning hammered from the pub and staggering to bed.
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Albert Edwards Oct 21
Replying to @brighteconomist
Ha, someone only recommended that book to me yesterday as I had flagged up I was reading Michael Lewis', The Undoing Project. Unlike many in the business I'm not a big reader. Dylan or James used to read them and tell me what was in them. Now I have to read them myself!
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Albert Edwards Oct 20
Replying to @DomWh1te
I liked that analysis of the supposed V- shaped recovery. It looks like a V but GDP remains well below the depths of previous deep recessions. The only V that reminds me of is not Andy Haldane’s V but Harvey Smith’s V
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Albert Edwards Oct 19
Just before the 2008 GFC I insanely suggested that 10y bond yields should go to zero. Treasuries missed the bullet in that recession but full scale Japanification beckons soon. Who could have imagined in 2006 when I posted those charts, we would be in the total mess we are now?
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Albert Edwards Oct 19
How do politicians think we will ever recover from this? Inequality has surged in all it's various forms. cites LA school district 'losing' 30% of its students once they went online. This will ultimately end in revolution - economic, political and social revolution.
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Albert Edwards Oct 19
Of all the many ways to show how central banks have perverted finance, US 10y yields rising well above Austrian 100y has got to be well up there in the top 3, surely? Any other good ones I might be missing?
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Albert Edwards Oct 18
Replying to @VD718
For sure. From my recent writings...
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Albert Edwards Oct 18
Replying to @FernandoSaldan6
It’s called the FOMC minutes.
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Albert Edwards Oct 18
Replying to @paulhodges1
I’ve never heard the term ‘perennials’ used in demographics. I thought it was a gardening term. If it’s being used to reference to baby boomers like me, does that mean that like in the garden we come back stronger every year?!
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Albert Edwards Oct 17
My already low opinion of Central Bankers has just fallen to new lows. “Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, this week told reporters that she did not see much connection between loose monetary policy and financial risks”
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Albert Edwards Oct 16
Replying to @p13tobler
Whisper in the Night, 1972 in the Roy Wood early days
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Albert Edwards Oct 16
Replying to @michaellebowitz
I recognise that from my drinking days. It’s called a random walk...home!
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Albert Edwards Oct 16
Just listened. Very enjoyable and informative. As I started Uni in 1978 and work as an economist in London 1982 (BoE in my case), I have got one extra year on you Dave! We have indeed been around a long while. And we both think the US long bond yield has much further to fall.
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Albert Edwards Oct 15
Replying to @John_Stepek
I’ll still be bearish.
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Albert Edwards Oct 15
You’re bursting my (bund) bubble man! But you could well be right.
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Albert Edwards Oct 15
What a great call yesterday by . He and I both follow top-down macro but also see the value of technical analysis. As as 10y bund yields collapse today to -0.62, the lowest since the early March hiatus, it's only a matter of time until US 10y yields go negative too.
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Albert Edwards Oct 14
This shows Fed Chair Powell ‘fixing’ the broken financial markets which a ‘quick’ blast of liquidity. The markets now have Powell and the Fed exactly where they want him. Trapped.
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Albert Edwards Oct 14
A lot is but, even taking account of that I would contend for example, the US cycl adj deficit goes from 6.8% in 2019 before virus hit back to 7.6% in 2021 would represent a huge tightening v 2020, even if the economy strengthens. Think 10%plus instead as they loosen even more.
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