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Adam Kucharski
Mathematician/epidemiologist at . fellow and . New book The Rules of Contagion out 13th Feb:
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Adam Kucharski 8 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @michaelmina_lab
Would be useful to see this stratified by close contact regardless of symptoms, so can get an idea of secondary attack rate. Could help inform estimates for effectiveness of social distancing
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Adam Kucharski 8 h
The case fatality rate for is now being widely quoted as 2%. Reminder that this is based on an erroneous calculation that doesn't account for delay between onset of symptoms and death, or under-reporting. See below thread for more on what the actual value may be:
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Adam Kucharski 8 h
Great primer by et al on the uses of modelling during the early stages of
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Kai Kupferschmidt 21 h
Some news from the cluster of cases in the south of Germany: Two laboratories have been independently monitoring virus shedding by the patients being treated at a Munich clinic.
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @SRileyIDD
Good idea. Definitely potential for 1-2 week lag from change to manifestation in data. But is there a consistent incidence timeseries that covers that whole period? If available, we could easily rerun our SMC inference model ()
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Russell Neches 1. velj
Calling all scientists with relevant domain experience. There are 313 results on for "coronavirus" right now. Almost none of them have attached reviews. Let's fix that by Monday morning. Who's with me?
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @AdamJKucharski
See also this thread:
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @AdamJKucharski
This is obviously very early analysis (hence the large uncertainty in the estimate), but a clearer picture of should emerge in the coming days.
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @AdamJKucharski
Additional caveat: only confirmed international cases with a known onset date were analysed (88/153) – if all confirmed cases could be included, it would reduce the case fatality estimate (probably by around a half).
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Preliminary analysis by of international data suggests 4% (95% CI: 0.2–18%) of confirmed cases resulted in death. (Note: only some infections are confirmed, so proportion of infections that result in death could be much lower)
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
"It's been humbling to see scientists from all over the world break down traditional barriers to rapid scientific progress."
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Adam Kucharski 4. velj
Early estimates suggest mean delay from onset-to-death may be a couple of weeks:
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sean laverty 3. velj
Also about anything else.
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
If people are spreading misinformation about that needs debunking, please screen grab the post rather than quote retweet it (which will only amplify their profile further)
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
With episode 1 featuring ’s very own ....
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 3. velj
We're hosting a special lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream 👉
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @chadloder
Agree, really need to see the extent of false positives and false negatives for these kinds of signals
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
Our analysis of early dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere.
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @AdamJKucharski
We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.
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Adam Kucharski 3. velj
Apparently AI managed to flag as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak...
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