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Adam Kucharski
@
AdamJKucharski
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Mathematician/epidemiologist at @LSHTM. @WellcomeTrust fellow and @TEDFellow. New book The Rules of Contagion out 13th Feb: amzn.to/2rlONRP
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4.251
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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8 h |
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Would be useful to see this stratified by close contact regardless of symptoms, so can get an idea of secondary attack rate. Could help inform estimates for effectiveness of social distancing
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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8 h |
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The case fatality rate for #2019nCoV is now being widely quoted as 2%. Reminder that this is based on an erroneous calculation that doesn't account for delay between onset of symptoms and death, or under-reporting. See below thread for more on what the actual value may be: twitter.com/AdamJKucharski…
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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8 h |
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Great primer by @nicgeard @jmcvernon et al on the uses of modelling during the early stages of #2019nCoV pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/what-…
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| Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je tweet | ||
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Kai Kupferschmidt
@kakape
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21 h |
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Some news from the cluster of #2019nCoV cases in the south of Germany: Two laboratories have been independently monitoring virus shedding by the patients being treated at a Munich clinic.
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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Good idea. Definitely potential for 1-2 week lag from change to manifestation in data. But is there a consistent incidence timeseries that covers that whole period? If available, we could easily rerun our SMC inference model (medrxiv.org/content/10.110…)
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Russell Neches
@ryneches
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1. velj |
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Calling all scientists with relevant domain experience. There are 313 results on @biorxivpreprint for "coronavirus" right now. Almost none of them have attached reviews. Let's fix that by Monday morning. Who's with me? #CommunityReview #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/EOd2IPS7r2
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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See also this thread: twitter.com/SRileyIDD/stat…
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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This is obviously very early analysis (hence the large uncertainty in the estimate), but a clearer picture of should emerge in the coming days.
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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Additional caveat: only confirmed international cases with a known onset date were analysed (88/153) – if all confirmed cases could be included, it would reduce the case fatality estimate (probably by around a half).
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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Preliminary analysis by @C_Althaus of international #2019nCoV data suggests 4% (95% CI: 0.2–18%) of confirmed cases resulted in death. (Note: only some infections are confirmed, so proportion of infections that result in death could be much lower) github.com/calthaus/ncov-…
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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"It's been humbling to see scientists from all over the world break down traditional barriers to rapid scientific progress." bedford.io/blog/genomic-e…
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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4. velj |
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Early estimates suggest mean delay from onset-to-death may be a couple of weeks: github.com/calthaus/ncov-…
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sean laverty
@seanteachesmath
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3. velj |
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Also about anything else. twitter.com/AdamJKucharski…
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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If people are spreading misinformation about #2019nCoV that needs debunking, please screen grab the post rather than quote retweet it (which will only amplify their profile further)
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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| Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je tweet | ||
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
@LSHTM
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3. velj |
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We're hosting a special #coronavirus lecture today at 5.15 pm.
From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research.
All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream 👉 bit.ly/2S6tFIX #nCoV2019 pic.twitter.com/PRpHqdvdIg
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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Agree, really need to see the extent of false positives and false negatives for these kinds of signals
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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Our analysis of early #2019nCoV dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/w6i3FWraeg
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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3. velj |
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Apparently AI managed to flag #2019nCoV as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak... wired.com/story/ai-epide… pic.twitter.com/AjyhZNzdDg
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