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Adam Tooze
History, economics, politics, theory. Prof. Columbia University. Director of the European Institute. Born UK, raised FRG. Mensch mit Migrationshintergrund.
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Adam Tooze 3h
IMF cites the bid-ask spread as index of tension in Italian sovereign bond market. Looking at this graph I’m feeling like I wasn’t paying enough attention in 2014-6. What was going on there? This is in the build up to Draghi’s QE.
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Adam Tooze 3h
Which financial markets are on electronic platforms? which are driven by automated algorithms and how much of that is high-frequency. Fascinating overview from IMF GFSR April 2019.
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Adam Tooze 4h
"To mitigate financial stability risks stemming from corporate sector vulnerabilities, countries may consider developing prudential tools for highly leveraged firms where overall debt is systemically high.” IMF GFSR April/19 is hymn to macroprudentialism.
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Adam Tooze 13h
Maturity mismatch regulation for corporations anyone? How many of the top 29 systemically important financial systems have adequate macro prudential tools in place? A rather fascinating table from page 43 IMF GFSR April 2019. Notes at:
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Adam Tooze 13h
On the prospect of the renminbi overtaking the dollar as a reserve currency, a deflationary chart by = latest in the axes of evil series of chart busters.
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Adam Tooze 14h
Is frontier bond issuance a QE, dollar-glut, yield chasing story, or, as this IMF data suggests, a secular growth story with cyclical dip in 2015-6?
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Adam Tooze retweeted
Robin Brooks Apr 20
Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO): all monetary unions have regions that do poorly, including the US where states like Louisiana lag behind. The thing about Europe is that Italy isn't Louisiana. It's a huge economy that's systemic and cannot be left behind.
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Adam Tooze retweeted
Elina Ribakova 17h
As we are watching don't forget the dramatic reorientation in trade towards away from . Bringing product quality up to the standards is helping gain market share in other countries too.
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Adam Tooze 14h
If you want to understand why the US government fails to tax the wealthiest Americans, one key is to understand the fate of the IRS’s Global High Wealth Industry Group set up 2009 and subsequently ground down by big law and Republicans in Congress.
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Adam Tooze 15h
For China’s small banks to increase core Tier 1 equity ratios to 10.5 % & hold adequate capital v. 50% of on/off-balance-sheet shadow credit, they would have to shrink their current loan books about 30% in next year!
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Adam Tooze 15h
"the dream of a perfect information system that overcomes finance is doomed by its own imperfections.” Im late to the party but this is a fascinating piece by for on the Amazon-Gosplan analogy.
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Adam Tooze 16h
Little wonder that the Chinese economy slowed in 2017-8 given the severe squeeze on shadow finance particularly from smaller banks. Imagine if the US had done this in 2005-6! Will it be enough to stabilize China's financial system? IMF GFSR April 2019.
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Adam Tooze 16h
After the largest construction boom, and the largest urban migration in history, is China about to see the emergence of the largest private pension system and a HUGE payday for asset managers? hardly surprising that is deeply “engaged"
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Adam Tooze 17h
China’s inclusion in global bond and equity indices may drive an inflow of c. $450 bn from index funds … with unpredictable consequences for other EMs. IMF GFSR April 2019 is worried.
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Adam Tooze 17h
Want to know who actually owns Huawei … follow this link rather than the one given in the earlier tweet!
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Adam Tooze 17h
WHO OWNS HUAWEI? & on the conundrum of a nominally worker controlled conglomerate that is in fact an opaque labyrinth.
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Adam Tooze 17h
South Africa, Hungary, Malaysia, Poland and Colombia have in common that an unusually large share of their local currency gov debt is held by foreign investors driven by global and EM index benchmarks. Not good news in case of a global risk-off.
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Adam Tooze 18h
“In connection with the centennial anniversary of the Federal Reserve in 2013, the Board undertook an oral history project to collect personal recollections of a range of former Governors and staff members…” Why is Bernanke missing from the list?
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Adam Tooze 19h
So far passive ETF makes up a small part of EM investment (right scale). But IMF is worried that as that share rises portfolio flows to EM could become vulnerable to stampeding as investors treat EM as single asset class and respond to global news.
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Adam Tooze 20h
Insurers are a key link in the Eurozone doom loop, holding both 16% sovereign and 23% bank debt.
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