Twitter | Search | |
This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on 15 December 2020. Please switch to a supported browser or device. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.
Daniel Swain
Climate scientist at , , and studying extreme events. Formerly & .
24,384
Tweets
2,307
Following
44,719
Followers
Tweets
Daniel Swain retweeted
NWS Los Angeles 12h
Santa Ana wind for later this week - Thanksgiving Day through late Friday evening. Strong NE wind gusts across much of LA/VTA Counties and low humidity. This is a cold so highs will be in the 60's to low 70's.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
NWS San Diego 12h
⚠️ FIRE WEATHER WATCH ⚠️ Starting Thanksgiving Day for Southern California. Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds, combined with critically low humidity, will result in high fire danger. Prepare now - pack emergency kit, and bring flammable items indoors. 🔥
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
NWS San Diego 13h
Let's talk wind strength for the upcoming Santa Ana 👇🏽 Now looking like a moderate to locally *strong* event. 🍃 SBD/RIV/OC will see winds peak Thu into early Fri. Strongest gusts ~65 mph for windiest locations. Likely peaking later Friday for San Diego County.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain 17h
Replying to @SkepticCyclist
The ensembles...do not agree. It's not impossible, but odds are quite low (probably <15%).
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
Daniel Swain Nov 23
As renewed surge reaches increasingly dire levels in many U.S. states, I'm re-sharing this list of virology/public heath scientist-communicators. Information flow has improved over course of pandemic, but I still find this personally edifying.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Unfortunately not much sign of meaningful precip in California for foreseeable future. While fire season has been greatly mitigated in many areas, that is not the case everywhere--esp. in south. At least record warmth has finally retreated...
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Looking forward to this (virtual) panel at the AMS Annual Meeting in January 2021!
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @RobertDolezal
Of course sample size (N) will affect this, as will shape of underlying distribution. But 5 sigma is still orders of magnitude too high a bar to quantify 95% confidence in any context I can think of.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @RichIMET @WeatherWest
Thanks! (Sadly, I wasn't on Twitter quite early enough to snag that simpler handle, alas!)
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @AmidPrivilege
There were a few very light rain/mountain snow showers across NorCal last night, but nothing of hydrologic significance. This could happen again at some point in the next couple of weeks, but that amount of precipitation is pretty trivial relative to the growing deficit.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Unfortunately not much sign of meaningful precip in California for foreseeable future. While fire season has been greatly mitigated in many areas, that is not the case everywhere--esp. in south. At least record warmth has finally retreated...
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @RobertDolezal
That's simply not mathematically correct. Not even close. In a normal distribution, 95% of data falls within <2 standard deviations of mean. 5 sigma would correspond to a p-value of ~3x10^-7, or >99.999% confidence.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Following some recent precip in NorCal, a pretty intense dry period is once again expected essentially statewide over the next 2+ weeks. Strong ensemble agreement on very dry conditions through first week in Dec. This will allow already substantial precip deficits to grow.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Well, it was consecutively the warmest August, September, and then October on record in CA. Then it was slightly cooler than the long-term early November average the past two weeks. Shifting perceptual baselines!!
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @robertscribbler
Long-term trend toward--what, exactly?
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
As renewed surge reaches increasingly dire levels in many U.S. states, I'm re-sharing this list of virology/public heath scientist-communicators. Information flow has improved over course of pandemic, but I still find this personally edifying.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Replying to @Weather_West
Temperatures will start off close to (or even slightly below) avg this week, but will likely trend toward above avg by early Dec. Offshore/Santa Ana winds possible across SoCal at times, and unfortunately wildfire risk could be quite high across southern 1/3 of CA.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain Nov 23
Following some recent precip in NorCal, a pretty intense dry period is once again expected essentially statewide over the next 2+ weeks. Strong ensemble agreement on very dry conditions through first week in Dec. This will allow already substantial precip deficits to grow.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
Sam Lillo Nov 22
Replying to @splillo
Gati is the strongest tropical cyclone that has been recorded in this region of the globe; further south than any category 3-equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. And its intensification from 35kt to 100kt in 12 hours is the largest on record in the entire basin.
Reply Retweet Like
Daniel Swain retweeted
Los Angeles Times Nov 20
Deadly fire ravages Eastern Sierra town, then rains douse it, sheriff says
Reply Retweet Like