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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
So total cryptocoin market cap just hit $0.5T today. But have we *earned* it?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How many unbanked people have we banked?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How much censorship-resistant commerce for the common people have we enabled?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How many dapps have we created that have substantial usage? Low added value *per user* for using a blockchain is fine, but then you have to make up for it in volume.
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How much value is stored in smart contracts that actually do anything interesting?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How many Venezuelans have actually been protected by us from hyperinflation?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
How much actual usage of micropayment channels is there actually in reality?
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
The answer to all of these questions is definitely not zero, and in some cases it's quite significant. But not enough to say it's $0.5T levels of significant. Not enough.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky 12 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
Just to be clear, we all understand that the (weak) efficient markets hypothesis prohibits a world where cryptocurrency prices only rise after their value has actually been earned, ja? That would be a world of predictable price rises once the earning started.
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether
I should rephrase. In the last 3 years, the crypto market cap has increased by 200x, but I definitely don't feel like crypto's *potential* has increased by 200x. In some key sectors (eg. payments) it has even regressed.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky 13 Dec 17
Replying to @VitalikButerin
If we were going to die on the hill of EMH--which I don't think I would in just my first-order opinion, but I think Scott Sumner would and he may know better than I do--then the reply would be that the market's confidence in that potential was what increased 200x.
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Vitalik Non-giver of Ether 13 Dec 17
Replying to @ESYudkowsky
If you wish, feel free to interpret my remarks as "the public clearly has very very high expectations of us, and this makes me feel worried and uneasy inside. We need to try harder to make this actually work"
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