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@TimHarford | |||||
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Just re-re-re-reading @PTetlock and @dgardner "Superforecasting". Such a good book - and full of subtleties. Recommended. amzn.to/2GquLtq
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James Elder
@jamesofputney
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25. sij |
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I listened to it on audiobook last year and liked it a lot.
The only thing that has aged badly is the use of Michael Flynn as a case study!
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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26. sij |
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Why? At the time, he had a stellar reputation and we criticized his analysis as poorly informed and extreme. I would have thought that looks rather good in hindsight...
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Jeremiah McGuire
@jeremiahfm
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25. sij |
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Since you’ve re-re-re- read it :) I’ll recommend Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment, which is a heavier lift but a tour de force
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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25. sij |
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Indeed. And the gold standard of an academic subjecting his own work to withering criticism and seeing if it stands up.
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ARTHUR JM CHARTIER
@1UNITEDSTATES1
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26. sij |
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