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Seth Abramson
(THREAD) It's now almost certain Papadopoulos *wore a wire* during the last 90+ days. Here are the implications. Hope you'll read and share.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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1/ The FBI arrested Papadopoulos on July 27th, 2017.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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2/ Papadopoulos plead guilty to Making False Statements on October 5th, 2017.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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3/ At the time Papadopoulos pled guilty, the government requested that his guilty plea be "sealed"—invisible to the general public.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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4/ Here's the relevant language:
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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5/ "Proactive cooperator" in this context means someone who is willing and able to wear a wire to help the government get more information.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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6/ So Papadopoulos was wired up, at the latest, between October 5 and today, October 30. But he could have started cooperating before then.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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7/ Prosecutors often require a defendant to perform cooperative services for the government well in *advance* of his or her formal plea.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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8/ The reason for this is that—via both "proffer" and sometimes actual performance—a defendant must show they're of value to the government.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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9/ So there is *every* reason to think that Papadopoulos was wired for sound not long after his arrest on July 27th, 2017 at Dulles airport.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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10/ For Papadopoulos to get his October 5th plea, one of two things had to be true: (a) the feds had already got good sound from him; or...
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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11/ ...(b) he'd made a sufficient proffer establishing that he *could* get good sound for them—valuable evidence—shortly after October 5th.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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12/ If the former, Papadopoulos gave Mueller evidence he now holds that's of critical importance to his investigation—sound from higher-ups.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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13/ If the latter, it means Papadopoulos convinced law enforcement that he *still has access to people who were/are high up on Team Trump*.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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14/ Here's the KEY point: EITHER WAY, it means the White House is dissembling when it says that Papadopoulos was a minor Team Trump figure.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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15/ In fact, Papadopoulos still had *consequential access to top Trump officials* this *October*—18+ months after he came aboard Team Trump.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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16/ So news of "proactive cooperation" means Mueller has more than we know *and* Papadopoulos was *far* more critical than we're being told.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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17/ And if he was more involved than we know, the likelihood is that he pled to Making False Statements—and not more—for the sake of a deal.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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18/ In other words—contrary to what some say now—it's likely Papadopoulos did more and told the feds more than his current charge suggests.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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19/ Note his affidavit actually *says*, "This does not include all the facts known to me regarding this offense." And of *course* that's so.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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20/ Papadopoulos would have had to promise the feds a *senior* Trump official in order to warrant getting a plea deal now. Page wouldn't do.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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21/ (I'm putting aside the possibility, admittedly a slim one, that what Mueller wanted and Papadopoulos offered was just Russian sources.)
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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22/ (I doubt any Russians would've spoken to Papadopoulos post-Russia probe—but if so, he certainly had a nice email contact list to offer.)
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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23/ So if Page wouldn't have been a good enough "get" for the feds to wire Papadopoulos and give him an early plea deal, who would've been?
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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24/ Well, consider all this—Sam Clovis had hired him; current AG Jeff Sessions was his supervisor; and Paul Manafort was another supervisor.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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25/ Would Mueller have used Papadopoulos to get Manafort, who he had on other charges? No—unless Manafort could give good sound on others.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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26/ So the two most likely people for Papadopoulos to have spoken to over the last 90 days while wearing a wire are (a) Clovis (b) Sessions.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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27/ I've said here Sessions is one of the key targets of the Russia probe—though now that he's AG and "recused" he might avoid Papadopoulos.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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28/ So far and away the most likely "get" off Papadopoulos would be Sam Clovis—Trump's liaison to his Foreign Policy/National Security team.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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29/ It's worth noting that (a) Clovis went to ground months ago, and (b) Trump offered Clovis a cushy job he had no business at all getting.
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Seth Abramson 30 Oct 17
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30/ Trump nominated Clovis—who is *not a scientist*—to be top scientist at the USDA. He's awaiting confirmation now.
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