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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
Meteorologist PhD | | Mapmaker | Think Tanker Free ex parte opinions.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 5h
Oklahoma is about to be flooded this weekend. 3-5" widespread rainfall but some models showing 10-20"+ from slow moving tropical downpours. This NWS WPC forecast has >15T gallons on TX+OK.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
A nebulous phrase I see with expert quotes on climate and hurricanes is of the form: "as the world warms" "in a warming world" Does this mean in past 50-years, today, or next 50 years? Or all of the above? Need info to determine if based upon observations or is a prediction.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @rayfound
Oddly enough, once Florence reached the exceptionally warm waters, it slowly and then quickly weakened from Category 4 to Category 1 at landfall.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @RyanMaue
To properly identify possible anthropogenic influences upon Florence, we should demand significantly more rigorous explanations based upon solid data analysis including modeling. These hand-wavy "climate attribution by expert quotation" add nothing our understanding.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @RyanMaue
Article also conflates a study of steering currents trends over 50-years into the specific movement of two storms out of hundreds or thousands in the population sample. This logical fallacy has occurred often in media coverage.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @RyanMaue
Article also highlights a "one-off" attribution experiment that was not "published" at all ... no peer review occurred as of yet. This was only based upon one weather model forecast several days before landfall. And was described better as a proof-of-concept press release ...
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @rdstoll
And were busts ... thankfully.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
Replying to @jswatz
Quite an error to make considering we've been talking about record cold Eastern Atlantic SSTs leading to forecasts of a quiet 2018 season. c.f. 👇
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 8h
NY Times states that ocean temperatures Florence encountered were, in fact, warmer than normal. This is false. As I showed thru fairly simple analysis yesterday, Florence actually thrived over abnornally cool ocean temperatures ... coolest in 2 decades
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 14h
The in Atlanta are not optimally positioned around the metro with many underserved locations like Decatur. Regardless, their Coca Cola recipe is new since they serve Coke products. It is by far the best anywhere.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 14h
Replying to @hausfath @curryja and 2 others
"based on" is a charitable way of describing what was actually done to create that dataviz. It's misleading and useless.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 16h
Replying to @RyanMaue
As you've seen from spaghetti maps from ensemble models, our best global system ECMWF EPS, had wildly varying solutions with only noise level initial condition perturbations up to 2-3 days before the event.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 16h
Replying to @RyanMaue
Why did Florence stall? The attribution experiment would need to include the large scale environment and how it evolved over a period of 1-2 weeks. This synoptic scale, planetary wave pattern attribution analysis is way beyond saying slow movement was "consistent with a trend"
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 16h
Study by Kossin highlights historical trend of slower moving tropical cyclones worldwide by a detectable amount, let's say 1 mph on average. That's consistent with last century of warming globe and slower steering currents. But what does that say about Florence? Nothing.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 16h
Was Floyd a 1 in 1,000 year rainfall event in North Carolina? Matthew? The rarity or return period of extreme rainfall with hurricanes would seem to be more along the time scales of the hurricanes ... 🤔
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 16h
Best candy ... along with root beer barrels and horehounds. At
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 19h
Heading into October, heating degree days and cooling degree days start to equalize for the CONUS. ECMWF EPS 00z.
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com 20h
Replying to @curryja @MikeBastasch
He missed the section describing the methodology used to generate the historical data... downscale model blending and splicing. Written up by
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com retweeted
John Kassell 21h
EPS with growing confidence on what will likely be a pattern flip as we close out the month of September and head into October. Much cooler air mass to be ushered into the central and eastern US in the next 7-10 days. Map: |
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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com retweeted
John Kassell Sep 18
Meaningful cooler values come into the picture in the next 7 days across the central and eastern US as the GFS and ECMWF deterministic schemes usher in an autumnal cold front. Maps |
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