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Robin Harding
Tokyo bureau chief for the Financial Times. Recovering Fed-watcher. Blathering here about Japan and the global economy.
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Robin Harding Nov 5
Replying to @Brad_Setser
Interested to know the answer. Anecdotally on (a), recent Japanese flows haven't gone into Treasuries because yields are too low after a currency swap. But I don't think that explains your chart.
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Robin Harding Oct 25
Replying to @TimDuy
I'm wondering exactly the same in Japan. We may be able to go below 2% unemployment over here.
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Tim Harford Oct 11
A reminder that there is quite a lot of very very good news around, if you look in the right places and at the right time-scale.
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Gernot Wagner Oct 4
Wind farms raise night-time temperatures by ~1.5°C! Two important papers by Lee Miller & on wind power density and wind's climate impacts, published in ERL and , out today. Some great context on both:
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Robin Harding Oct 3
Replying to @M_C_Klein
It's a good corrective and offsets Ljungqvist et al showing the opposite. Still a huge gap for a convincing theory on profits/investment.
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Robin Harding Sep 28
The hypothesis is that the demand curve for housing services slopes down. That’s it. Lower user cost over decades = more demand. This generates no prediction for macro rent-to-income ratios. (Also, apols - it’s getting a bit late here. We could continue this all night!)
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Robin Harding Sep 28
Well this is where we got stuck before. If this were a cyclical fall in rates, I might agree with you, but it’s been going on for 20-30 years. With a lower user cost, people want more house to live in, and Britain hasn’t provided it.
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Robin Harding Sep 28
Ah, these mysterious houses that investors want despite them having no rental income because nobody wants to live in them. They don’t sound like very safe assets to me!
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Robin Harding Sep 28
I don’t entirely accept that but I agree falling interest rates are the most important cause of house price rises over the last 20 years. Our disagreement is that Ian doesn’t think people want more housing when its user cost falls, whereas I do.
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Robin Harding Sep 28
As I repeatedly said in my discussion with Ian, I agree that falling real interest rates pushed prices up, and I agree that house prices will fall if real interest rates rise. So I don't see how this could ever separate the two views.
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Robin Harding Sep 20
Titans of Mathematics Clash Over Epic Proof of ABC Conjecture via
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Jim Gleeson Sep 19
If I had to pick the one most important factor in making so many Tokyo streets so attractive it would be the absence of any on-street parking. A fairly random but typical example is the street around the corner from our hotel in Nishi-shinjuku-go home ...
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Robin Harding Sep 18
Bowing is underrated
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Robin Harding Sep 17
I’m confused by what the hypothetical crisis is here. An inflation spike?
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Robin Harding Sep 12
I think it’s good (and well edited in English :-) There’s a lot missing, e.g. foreign policy, but it’s a sophisticated take on Abe. Suga’s way too clever to make himself PM, though.
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Martin Wolf Sep 3
Martin Wolf: Why so little has changed since the financial crash
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Robin Harding Sep 3
You just need to meet for the full set of FT Robins
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Gearoid Reidy Sep 2
Spotted under Madagascar on this Japanese TV show - certainly one of the more radical plans for post-Brexit Britain...
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Robin Harding Aug 25
Replying to @DianeSwonk
I’m very sorry for your loss
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Robin Harding Aug 12
Replying to @GearoidReidy
This is crucial. I toned down my critique of Japanese sandwiches after reading the Anthony Bourdain notices, which made me worry I was missing something.
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