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Dave Wasserman
Imagine a hypothetical swing state where 42% of the vote is cast by mail and there's an extreme partisan gap between VBM (80% Biden) and in-person (70% Trump). Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit ):
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Dave Wasserman Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict
Now a few caveats: 1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though came close 2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states 3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict
Fact: in the past decade alone, 7 Electoral College contests, 12 Senate races and 71 House races have been decided by <2%. So no matter the size of the "blue wave" in Nov., this is a moderately big deal.
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Goblin Socks Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
This is terrifying
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(vote blue 2020) Jul 30
VOTE EARLY
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David Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
Like I don’t already have enough to worry about??
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Elliot Jul 30
You'll be fine! I have voted via mail for the past two local elections and they were both accepted just fine. Just be sure to read everything over carefully.
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Maskunos😷 Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
why it's critical that there is no swing state in margins like that.
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Leedaman87 Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
Is it possible to account for one party’s voters being better at voting by mail (perhaps by educating voters), and this less likely to have their votes rejected.
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Molotov Mocktail Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
I wish more people were making this point.
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Spazmelda Jul 30
Replying to @Redistrict @alflinn
So should we VMB or not? I just printed off the forms to get my and my husband's absentee ballot here in Ohio, but I haven't sent them in yet.
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J Jul 30
I mean there's a higher chance it won't count but you definitely could. I'm voting in person- early.
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