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Dave Wasserman 27 Jul 18
Fact: since '92, the president's party has batted *zero* for 23 trying to defend open House seats the president failed to carry two years earlier. In '18, Rs are defending 8 open Clinton-won CDs (a third of what Dems need) & 13 more where Trump was <55%.
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Dave Wasserman
And BTW, this record-shattering 42-seat House GOP exodus is one of the biggest reasons continues to view Dems as substantial favorites for House control.
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Dave Wasserman 27 Jul 18
Replying to @Redistrict
Another GOP concern: $$$. In 20/42 *R* open seats, the leading D outraised the leading R between April & June, including 7/8 Clinton CDs & 13/34 Trump CDs.
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Dave Wasserman 27 Jul 18
Replying to @Redistrict
To NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers's credit, only one additional R has retired since Ryan did on 4/11: Rep. Tom Garrett, who is leaving to seek treatment for alcoholism & was replaced on the ballot by a distillery owner.
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Dave Wasserman 27 Jul 18
Replying to @Redistrict
To be clear, 42 GOP open/vacant seats is a record since *at least* 1928, b/c my Vital Stats data only goes back to 1930 cycle. Extreme psephology nerds: when's the last year there were more??
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Bruce 27 Jul 18
May the lord open.
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Jeff 27 Jul 18
Favorites? And substantial favorites? You know we're talkin about the Democrats, right.
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