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Dave Wasserman
U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Report & / contributor. Nerd for maps, data & bluegrass
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Nate Cohn 15m
PA-18 special vote history data is in. Some preliminary cuts: The electorate was D+4 by party registration, 48 to 44, appx the same as RVs. Turnout was 52.3% among reg. Dems, 51.7% among Reps, 32% w/other. 18-29 year olds represented just 6% of the electorate
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Dave Wasserman 3h
Think of this way: its PVI score is R+13. is R+11, AL is R+14. In other words, Hiral Tipirneni (D) would need to be more of a rock star than Conor Lamb, or Debbie Lesko (R) would need to be Roy Moore-level toxic, for Dems to prevail. Both...unlikely.
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Dave Wasserman 5h
Because mail ballots make up an overwhelming share of the vote in (maybe 80%) whereas they're tiny shares of the vote in states like MI, PA, WI, etc.
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Dave Wasserman 5h
Replying to @Redistrict
A GOP loss in would be genuinely shocking. That said, a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) might be 43%+. That'd be consistent w/ Dems on track to take back House or win a statewide AZ race.
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Dave Wasserman 5h
Happy Election Day! Reminder to people hyping this as a coin flip: Rs have a 17% voter reg advantage & lead by 21% (!) among the 154k who mailed in ballots so far (likely 3/4 of total vote). A case where actual voter data > polls.
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Dave Wasserman 20h
Breaking: Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) thrown off GOP primary ballot, creating yet another R open seat. But Lamborn was already one of the likeliest incumbents to lose a primary and remains Solid R.
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Dave Wasserman 21h
The real suspense in : who is the 113 year old Dem voter?
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Dave Wasserman Apr 23
Emerson radically changes methodology *between polls* to better reflect early vote, finds Debbie Lesko (R) has "surged" into 6% lead. Ok, if you say so...
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Dave Wasserman Apr 23
Replying to @ForecasterEnten
Prof. Kimball admits in the clip that Emerson changed its methodology between polls to better incorporate early vote. CYA anyone?
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Dave Wasserman Apr 20
Replying to @Redistrict
That's likely just way too big a gap for Dems to make up w/ crossovers & Election Day (4/24). In fact, 39% of all Rs have voted so far vs. 38% of Ds and 23% of Others. Retiree zones just not the kind of places you're gonna see a huge pro-Dem enthusiasm gap.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 20
New update: 151k ballots cast (likely ~70% of total). R registrants out-voting Ds 49%-28%. Median voter age: still 67.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 20
Former top House GOP aide 👇
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Dave Wasserman Apr 20
Of the 199 House Rs running for reelection, only *one*: 1) took <55% in '16, 2) sits in an R+5 or less district 3) that Clinton won, 4) voted for AHCA 5) and the tax bill, 6) was outraised by a D in Q1 7) and faces a D w/ $200k+ on hand. Find out who:
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Dave Wasserman Apr 20
New at : Who's most vulnerable to a wave? We've updated our Risk Factors for 2018 House GOP Incumbents.
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
(((Harry Enten))) Apr 19
Special elections going Democrats' way. More House races getting pushed into their column by nonpartisan experts... and yet! Their House polling is going south. Here's why they should/shouldn't worry about that.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 19
Replying to @BradMossEsq
Sample is totally wrong...64% college+ when eligible population is 28%. Median age 55 when actual so far is 67.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 19
's voter reg breakdown: 41% R, 24% D, 35% Other. Votes cast so far (144k): 49% R, 28% D, 23% Other. If anything, there's a pro-GOP turnout gap that Ds would need to reverse on 4/24. Extremely unlikely to happen.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 19
What's a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) in on Tuesday? Probably 43%-47%. Really anything above ~41% in (R+13 PVI) would be consistent w/ Dems on track to win the House or a statewide AZ race.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 19
Emerson Polling memo: "Statistical Tie in , Dems Positioned for Surprise Upset in the Desert." Reality check: Rs out-voting Ds 48.7%-27.6% w/ 144k mail ballots cast (likely ~2/3 of all votes). Median voter age: 67.
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Dave Wasserman Apr 18
New at : 7 more races move towards Democrats following latest polls/fundraising reports. Full ratings:
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