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Dave Wasserman
U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Report & contributor. Nerd for maps, election data, ⛷️ hills & 🎻 tunes.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 23
Fairly astonishing: in the past decade, white men have fallen from 60% to 39% of all House Democrats. Meanwhile, they've risen from 87% to 90% of all House Republicans.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 23
Replying to @Redistrict
One seat I'd watch closely is . Blue Dog Rep. Jim Costa (D) has escaped without a more progressive challenger for years in a 60% Hispanic seat, but Fresno Councilwoman Esmeralda Soria (D) is running in 2020 (top-two primary).
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Dave Wasserman Aug 23
Wait, he was running?
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Dave Wasserman Aug 22
There aren't many House Democratic retirements yet, but I'd keep a close eye on California, where there are nine Dem incumbents who will be 75+ by Election Day 2020 (and another eleven who will be 65+).
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Dave Wasserman Aug 22
My professional heroes? The folks who have kept ⁦⁩ going strong: Rich Cohen, ⁦⁩, ⁦⁩, ⁦⁩, ⁦⁩, ⁦⁩, ⁦⁩ and so many more. A book to treasure.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 22
to this Feb. '17 piece, which did a pretty good job outlining Dems' OC-fueled path to the House majority 20+ months out.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 21
Replying to @BruneElections
Bonus sleeper pick:
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Dave Wasserman Aug 21
Replying to @kkondik @rarohla and 6 others
A few other smart analysts who deserve more follows: , , , , , , , . Most of the folks on these lists don’t engage in a lot of self-promotion so I’ll try it for them.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 21
Replying to @TimNBCBoston
Thanks so much for this wonderful tribute Tim and being such a good friend to him over the years. -Dave (Bob’s grandson)
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Geoffrey Skelley Aug 21
Let’s see how many ways candidates can divide like 15% of the national primary vote.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
Sadly I didn’t get an invite to the recent DC hangout so he’s off the list. Actually should have left Miles off too b/c of this snub
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
More awesome journalists/analysts I didn’t have space to fit in the first tweet: , , , , , , , . And so many more I’ll add to this list soon.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
There are dozens of talented, smart and objective election/polling analysts who don’t get nearly enough attention. If you’re not following , , , , , , , you’re doing 2020 wrong.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
Replying to @cspanwj @cspanMcArdle
Feeling grateful for the life of my grandfather, Robert Lautzenheiser, who passed away this afternoon at the age of 103 (he cast his first vote in 1936!). For decades, he was MA's state climatologist and inspired my love of data. Rest in peace & thanks again to .
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
amy walter Aug 16
There's been a whole lot of attention to what a recession would mean for Trump in 2020, but first, what would it mean for the Dem. nomination.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
Replying to @Redistrict
FWIW, there were 3 races everyone in this chart got "wrong:" , , . I also missed and . But careful evaluation, and a little luck, allowed us to call 430/435 races right (pending ). I'd take 430/435 any cycle.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
From Election Day afternoon, 2018 (judge for yourselves):
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
Our final 2018 House outlook at was Dems +30 to +40. We believe a blend of quantitative and qualitative (such as personally interviewing candidates) evaluation is the best approach to forecasting elections, and it worked out well in 2018.
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
The outlet that really "nailed" 2018? , which had Dems +39 by Election Day (one seat off actual) and built an extremely detailed, transparent & intellectually honest race-by-race model. Hats off to them (and they deserve more credit for '16, too).
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Dave Wasserman Aug 20
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