Twitter | Search | |
Dave Wasserman
U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Report & / contributor. Nerd for maps, data & bluegrass
9,909
Tweets
847
Following
98,057
Followers
Tweets
Dave Wasserman 7h
Replying to @Redistrict
Under the old lines, here were the PVIs of the six vulnerable GOP seats: : R+2 : R+1 : R+2 : R+4 : R+5 : R+11 Median: R+3 Under new lines: : R+1 : D+13 : D+2 : D+1 : R+6 : R+3 Median: EVEN
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 7h
The most accurate way to think about partisan impact of new PA map isn't "Dems gain x seats from it." It's that the new map replaced 6 existing Dem pickup opportunities w/ 6 *much stronger* opportunities: (, , , , , ).
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 8h
Replying to @pwthornton
Fact: PA's political geography naturally advantages GOP. It's tough to draw 9/18 districts to elect Dems without splitting Philadelphia/Pittsburgh many ways. Just the way it is - sorry you don't get this concept.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 10h
Replying to @mlbroeske
The "very definition of our democracy?" No, that's called proportional representation. If you favor that, fine. Our single-member district system is ill-equipped to guarantee PR. Example: Dems won ~1/3 of the vote in WV - but it's impossible to draw a Clinton district there.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 14h
Terrific explainer of why the new PA lines are even better for Dems than expected. Dems' pickup opportunities in ~5 seats just got a lot better.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 14h
Replying to @Redistrict
P.S. Dems' natural geographic disadvantage has *zero* to do w/ land mass/density. It has to do with concentration of their voters in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh - made it difficult to spread Dems across many PA districts without violating the court's compactness criteria.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 14h
Replying to @Redistrict
Examples: new PA map splits Berks Co. (Reading) in a way that gives Dems an advantage in . Splits York Co. in a way that helps Dems in . Splits Luzerne Co. in a way that protects Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in .
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 15h
Replying to @Redistrict
Make no mistake: this is the PA map Dems wanted. It's a ringing endorsement of the "partisan fairness" doctrine: that parties should be entitled to same proportion of seats as votes. However, in PA (and many states), achieving that requires conscious pro-Dem mapping choices.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 15h
Holder statement on new PA map: “The fair map issued by the state Supreme Court is a major victory in the fight against gerrymandering in Pennsylvania and around the country...Republicans all over the country should be on notice - their days of partisan map-rigging are numbered."
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
A caveat for Dems: two Lancaster Dems, Christina Hartman & Jess King, have raised $300k+ for . Now that $$ is pretty useless & Dems need a Harrisburg candidate against Rep. Scott Perry (R) in new instead.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
The result: Dems have a great shot to win 8-11 of PA's 18 seats in November. Under a truly partisan-blind compact map, maybe 7-10. Under old GOP map, maybe 6-9.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Bottom line: the PA Supreme Court's map doesn't just undo the GOP's gerrymander. It goes further, actively helping Dems compensate for their natural geographic disadvantage in PA.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): Rep. Mike Doyle (D) keeps a safe Dem Pittsburgh seat. PVI moves from D+17 to D+13.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) gets much more of Allegheny Co., making him MUCH more vulnerable. PVI goes from R+11 to R+3. This is a logical place for Conor Lamb (D) to run in Nov., whether he wins 3/13 or not.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
CORRECTION: New (old ): Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) gets to keep a seat that's R+1, PVI essentially unchanged (earlier Tweet referred to wrong new CD's PVI - perils of district renumbering).
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): Erie is reunited & Butler Co. is once again split, moving PVI from R+11 to R+8. Rep. Mike Kelly (R) potentially at risk if right Dem runs.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 16h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): this rural western PA seat becomes by far the most GOP in the state at R+20. Safe for Rep. G.T. Thompson (R).
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 17h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): this new SWPA district loses Allegheny County (Conor Lamb (D)'s home) & becomes safer for GOP. PVI moves from R+11 to R+14.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 17h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): this is a reconfigured version of the Shuster (R) open seat centered on Altoona. Still safe GOP.
Reply Retweet Like
Dave Wasserman 17h
Replying to @Redistrict
New (old ): Rep. Tom Marino (R) gets to keep a safe GOP seat centered on Williamsport. PVI moves from R+16 to R+17.
Reply Retweet Like