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Dave Wasserman
U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report & player of fiddles/hammered dulcimers/Excel spreadsheets More:
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
However, if you told me today that the 2016 GOP nominee would win 35% of Latino voters, I'd put a big bet on that candidate winning the WH.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
That's why there probably is no "magic threshold" of support a GOP candidate needs among Latino voters to win:
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
In fact, even if ZERO Latinos had voted in 2012, Obama would have won the Electoral College with 283 votes (while losing popular vote).
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
In addition, Electoral College is biased against Latinos. They made up 10% of national '12 vote, but averaged just 6.9% in key swing states.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
Basic math: if the GOP nominee simply did 3% better than Romney with ALL groups (30% w/ Latinos vs. 27%, for example), he/she would win.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 17
Strongly disagree with this memo's assertion that GOP needs 47% of Latinos to win WH in 2016.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 16
Great primer on the structural reasons behind Dem & GOP advantages at different levels of government by :
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Dave Wasserman Jul 15
Move of to Toss Up reflects uncertainty of legal situation. If Tallahassee moves to , then will likely move to Solid R.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 15
But, long way to go before new maps are finalized. Jolly (R) Sen run could make Lean D. And, will Graham (D) run at all in '16?
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Dave Wasserman Jul 15
As a result of FL ruling, has moved both Graham (D) & Jolly (R) to Toss Up:
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Dave Wasserman Jul 15
New : For Dems, FL Supreme Court decision could be a case of "Be careful what you wish for:"
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
amy walter Jul 13
Demographics aren't destiny - turnout is
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Dave Wasserman Jul 12
Charlie and I co-wrote the 2nd article and I'm glad he saw fit to highlight my work. Correct byline:
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Emily Cahn Jul 9
A state legislator who might run for Grayson's seat trashes Grayson's senate bid.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 9
GOP could use ruling to pair Graham (D) & Brown (D) in same district & turn Grayson (D)'s into a Dem vote sink to protect Webster (R).
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Dave Wasserman Jul 9
Is the FL Sup Ct ruling a big victory for Dems? Not necessarily. Looking more like a case of "Be careful what you wish for."
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Dave Wasserman Jul 9
But, depends on how Rs draw map. Court's demand for an East-West could put Brown (D) & Gwen Graham (D) in same seat.
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Dave Wasserman Jul 9
The incumbents most endangered by today's FL Sup Ct ruling: Corrine Brown (D), David Jolly (R), Carlos Curbelo (R)
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
Reid Wilson Jul 9
FL Supreme Court orders state legislature to redraw some of its Cong districts, using specific software. :
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Steven Shepard Jul 7
Meet Democrats' opera-singing congressional candidate in Wisconsin:
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