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Dave Wasserman
U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Report & / contributor. Nerd for maps, data & bluegrass
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Dave Wasserman 6h
Replying to @Redistrict
To clarify, source says about 80% of the ~4.5k outstanding in are provisionals (which favor Rouda) and 20% are vote by mail (which favor Keirstead). Rouda still favored but not by much.
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Dave Wasserman 6h
Replying to @Redistrict
Now hearing most provisionals have already been counted b/c OC registrar is counting first. About 4.5k ballots left will be counted tmw. Headed for a tight finish, margin likely under 100.
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Dave Wasserman 13h
As expected, provisionals coming in big for Harley Rouda (D) in . With 1/5 of them counted, he’s cut Hans Keirstead (D)’s vote lead from 335 to 114. Still on pace to advance.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 15
New at : Rep. Pete Sessions (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up. Why the House Rules chair/former NRCC chair might now be the most vulnerable incumbent in TX:
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Jennifer Duffy Jun 15
A few changes in Governors ratings IA (R – Reynolds):​ Likely R -> Toss Up MA (R – Baker):​ Likely R -> Solid R NH (R – Sununu):​ Lean R -> Likely R OH (R – OPEN):​ Lean R -> Toss Up PA (D – Wolf):​ Lean D -> Likely VT (R – Scott):​ Likely R -> Solid R
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Dave Wasserman Jun 14
Replying to @Redistrict
Also, Sanford's loss doesn't mean Rep. Martha Roby (R) is about to lose her GOP runoff on 7/17. She's pretty fortunate: her opponent is a former Dem member who voted for Pelosi for speaker in '09.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 14
Did Sanford lose his primary because he spoke out against Trump? Yes. But some people also forget he started out pretty weak: he took 56% against state Rep. Jenny Horne in his '16 primary.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 14
Good overview of quantitative vs. qualitative House forecasting by in today’s Crystal Ball.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 13
update: Keirstead (D) lead over Rouda (D) cut from 456 to 370 (0.2%) in latest count. Provisionals (45k in OC) still likely to favor Rouda. We'll see.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 13
No Republican has won statewide in VA since ‘09...and it may not happen again for a long time.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Ok, one more: Iraq/Afghan vet/state Rep. Jared Golden (D) wins primary, defeating Lucas St. Clair (D). Dems likely better off w/ a military vet vs. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R). GOP was ready to paint St. Clair a wealthy carpetbagger.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
That concludes tonight's primary coverage. I'm hungry and headed to ...or should I drive 21 mins farther to ? ?
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
UPDATE: so far in 2018 Dem House primaries featuring at least one woman, one man & no incumbent, women have been the top vote-getters in 66/93 cases (71%). On GOP side, just 9/26 (35%). Never seen anything like it.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Remarkable: after tonight, Dems have nominated women in 73/150 (49%) of '18 House races (excluding Dem incumbents). On GOP side, just 18/112 (16%).
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amy walter Jun 12
how about a third: sign a contract with CNN/MSNBC
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Projection: Susie Lee (D) & Danny Tarkanian (R) win their primaries for open , will face off in November. rating: Lean D.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Projection: former Reps. Steven Horsford (D) & Cresent Hardy (R) win their primaries in , will face off in November. rating: Likely D.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Rep. Mark Sanford (R) loses for the first time in his career. Katie Arrington (R) faces Joe Cunningham (D) in fall. rating: Likely R.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Hard to believe, but true.
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Dave Wasserman Jun 12
Replying to @Redistrict
Meanwhile, Plumer (R) holds WI 53%-45%, a Trump +15 district. Dems cut the Trump margin by about half but still came up short.
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