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Quill Intelligence
We are a tech enabled economic intelligence firm producing high caliber research for today's leaders in economics and finance.
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Quill Intelligence 10h
"This week is going to have to be about communication. Powell's goal will be…to say the Fed is standing ready to cut rates if the situation justifies moving forward" of on with Neil Cavuto —
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Quill Intelligence 22h
“Second quarter GDP growth will be made or broken on consumer spending which is running north of 3% and expected to contribute 2.3 percentage points to GDP; Macroeconomic Advisors’ upwardly-revised GDP estimate of 1.8% reflects reliance on consumption”—
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Quill Intelligence Jun 15
"Effective Lower Bound, Level Policy, Slope Policy… 3 very important terms that came out of the speech that opened last week's Chicago Fed Conference"
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Quill Intelligence Jun 14
"Effective Lower Bound. The ELB replaces the Zero Lower Bound. I can't stress the importance of that. That means you can breach the zero bound and veer into negative interest rate territory.
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Quill Intelligence Jun 14
"The financial system is the conduit to which monetary policy is to flow. If there are negative interest rates you are breaking the conduit itself. If banks can't make money they won't make good loans" Jason Burack with
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Quill Intelligence Jun 14
"It is a sad state of affairs when you hear Powell talk about the effective lower bound, meaning there are discussions about implementing negative interest rates" Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St with
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Quill Intelligence Jun 14
“Early warning signals for recession have consistently emanated from the third largest state, New York; raise a yellow flag for the Empire State’s jobless claims trend, up year-over-year in back-to-back months for the first time in seven years” —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 13
“With July’s highly expected rate cut and the inflation expectations curve sagging, a bull steepening in the nominal curve is underway; slowing inflation has dragged the four-month core CPI trend to 1.54%, 46 bps lower than the annual inflation rate” —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 13
The Sino-Syndicate – China Tests the Boundaries of Frontier Financing "the irony of the explosion in dollar-denominated debt and the adoption of currencies anchored to the dollar is the fading influence of the U.S. economy on the global stage."
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Quill Intelligence Jun 13
"Stimulus looks like chimera…Stimulus has hit a wall of diminishing returns as a consequence of policymakers never having the courage to normalize [interest rates]." of
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Quill Intelligence Jun 12
"I certainly think the Fed has to rethink the way that it measures inflation. We have stocks within a fraction of their all time highs. And yet the Fed's inflation metrics still refuse to take into account asset price inflation" via
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Quill Intelligence Jun 12
Synchronicity “In May, short-term small business loan borrowing rates spiked to 7.8%, a 120-basis-point increase over April; there have been only two instances in 34 years of small business survey data where lending has tightened so significantly” —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 11
"The Fed normally goes in with 5.5-6% of the Fed funds rate to cut. They've only got 2.5% points, so they are precious bullets. Does Trump really want his legacy to be pushing the Fed to go into negative rates, which kills the financial sector?" —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 11
"It is not so much that the President should say nothing about the economy but… the more denegrading he is, the more critical, the more difficult it will be for the Fed to be objective." via Varney & Co. of
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Quill Intelligence Jun 11
Top-Down Auto Trade Down “At 0.7%, the used-to-new vehicle sales ratio is hitting cycle highs matching 2009 and 1961 peaks…; the percentage of super prime and prime borrowers taking out loans for used cars are the highest ever recorded by Experian” —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 10
"A lot of the elements that boosted auto sales in 2018 have simply disappeared with wage growth slowing so where are you going to get the bump in auto sales?" “The Exchange”. Real Vision
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Quill Intelligence Jun 10
"11 months of increasing layoffs. They have moved from retail armageddon into technology, followed by industrials and automotive. The American consumer is telling you 'We need a rate cut'."
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Quill Intelligence Jun 10
Will June see a rate cut? "This week has been choreographed. Jerome Powell comes on stage. After that the first paper at the Chicago Fed conference says that the last time we had a downturn had we only had -5% interest rates…"
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Quill Intelligence Jun 10
The Labor Market Lottery “It appears the global recession is beginning to impact U.S. services; Germany’s 2.5% decline in manufacturing industrial production was the steepest since August 2015 and transportation jobs were flat in May…” The Daily Feather —
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Quill Intelligence Jun 10
"We go into Fed blackout on Monday. What if we get up to 50% while they are in blackout by June 19? Do they defy markets? They defied markets in December. How did that work out? Not so well."
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