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Charles Franklin
Co-Dev. , Dev-, Director Marquette Law School Poll, Prof Emeritus UW-Madison. R nerd.
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Charles Franklin 6h
Replying to @petebray
I should add motivation & GOTV are unknowns at this point as well. Lot of speculation but little hard data.
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Charles Franklin 6h
Replying to @petebray
Maybe. And things like voter id are new so not reflected in the 1996-2016 data very much. Voter list data would also be helpful but Alabama wants $29,000 for it, so I didn’t buy.
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Charles Franklin 6h
Replying to @PollsAndVotes
Note that nationally black and white turnout are quite similar, as in Alabama. And Alabama was in the forefront of the movement for voting rights. I think that still pays dividends. See
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Charles Franklin 6h
Replying to @petebray
Nationally it isn’t very different. And Alabama was in the forefront of the movement for voting rights. I think that still pays dividends.
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Charles Franklin 6h
Alabama registration and turnout by race, midterms & presidential for 1996-2016. Only slight differences by race. Lower turnout midterms for both white and black citizens but equal drop-off. As for special? No past data.
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Charles Franklin 14h
Replying to @pstrasberg @SeanTrende
Of course Jones *could* win. That is up to the voters of Alabama. The balance of polling at this point says that is unlikely. SurveyMonkey showed a wide range of possibilities including both Jones and Moore wins depending on the electorate.
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Charles Franklin 16h
We’ll see Tuesday.
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Charles Franklin 16h
We’ll see Tuesday night. Q-poll was closest in VA, and I think they used their standard demographic weights+self report of turnout certainty. Voter list samples & weighting did not do as well.
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Charles Franklin 16h
Replying to @SeanTrende @pstrasberg
Yes. As fewer polls are done by big staffs with technical expertise there has been a growing concern that arbitrary choices w/o empirical support may grow, esp in low cost public polls. All the more reason to aggregate & assess accuracy after election.
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Charles Franklin retweeted
Vipin Narang Dec 9
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Charles Franklin 19h
I also think Ala does have a long history of reacting against “outsider” criticism. Parties there have often been internally divided but not sensitive to the critiques of “outsiders”.
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Charles Franklin 19h
Replying to @NathanKalmoe
I don’t know how Ala Rep voters would have responded if other elected state officials, such as Gov and legislators, had joined Shelby. But I expect non-Ala GOP Senators have zero or negative effect.
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Charles Franklin 19h
Replying to @pstrasberg @SeanTrende
They gave 10 estimates. Which should I use? I defer to the pollster but in this case they didn’t choose a single estimate. For me to pick 1 would be purely subjective on my part.
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Charles Franklin 22h
Replying to @SeanTrende
Ah. Yes it does.
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Charles Franklin 23h
Replying to @SeanTrende
Also, using more polls than RCP lists. Wikipedia has additional ones. I’ve excluded one implausible one with n=32000 and not using any of the 10 SurveyMonkey estimates.
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Charles Franklin 23h
Replying to @SeanTrende
Loess. Span=.65.
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Charles Franklin 23h
Replying to @VSapiro
Michigan Model r I.
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Charles Franklin 23h
Contrast Shelby with seeming unity of Ala. GOP (except some Young Republicans groups.) Shelby is a lonely native son.
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Charles Franklin 23h
Alabama Senate race had one new poll released Saturday by Trafalgar Group (R): Moore +5, 51-46. Trend estimate now at Moore +4.5. Unknowns include turnout and polling error.
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Charles Franklin retweeted
Brian Lyman Dec 9
Montgomery also up; Jefferson Co. roughly where it would be in a state general election (compared w/a special one). Houston Co. in the Wiregrass, key to Moore's chances, also up, as is Moore's home county, Etowah.
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