What would a good midterm election look like for Democrats? I've been looking at partisan turnout in 2006...
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Here's Pennsylvania turnout by party from 2004 to 2016. 2006 looked like a Presidential year. 2010 & 2014 look different.
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Dem share of two party turnout in Pennsylvania:
2004 51.1%
2008 51.6%
2012 50.9%
2016 50.6%
2006 50.9%
2010 48.9%
2014 49.0%
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(I've limited this to voters registered in 2004, to get an apples to apples comparison of these electorates.)
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Here are partisan turnout rates in 2006 by turnout score. GOP lower than Dems across the board, especially among .75-.80 & .50 & below.
In PA, 2006 was a net of 4% better for Dems than 2010/14. But this was a side effect of huge persuasion effects. Santorum lost by 20 in '06.
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At least in PA, 2006 turnout was 4% better for Dems than 2010. But nationally, there was a 15% swing in House popular vote, from D+8 to R+7.
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