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Philip E. Tetlock
Perceptual illusions are humbling. They show we can be 100% confident—& 100% wrong. Skeptics reply that illusions are the product of carefully staged trickery—not ecologically valid. But how much of life—in politics, business & academia—is carefully staged trickery?
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Alexander Wuttke Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock
Also when we can be tricked so easily on such a simple thing that we are all familiar with and feel competent in, how much more likely are we to be tricked on complex things that we have never really understood to begin with.
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Daniel Joshua Rubin Sep 6
Replying to @Kunkakom @PTetlock
Luckily our populace is well versed in economic theory, international relations, climate modeling, epidemiology, cultural anthropology, philosophy and psychology so we can spot shysters and cons pretty much instantly where it counts.
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Sasha Alyson Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock
I seem to recall once reading that 80-90% of the stories you see in the newspaper originated from a PR department.
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Marcos Polanco Sep 6
...as do 80-90% of stories that you never hear about.
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Escape Velocity Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock @ritholtz
We will always be tricked. It's how quickly you can realize you are being tricked.
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Ricardo Pinto Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock
I don't think it's an issue of perception, which is inerrant, but of how we conceptualize things. Still, there's an important observation: the validity of our abstract ideas is never obvious, so we should be careful when assessing and articulating our core beliefs and values.
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Marcos Polanco Sep 6
Kahneman and Tversky’s work show the information processing work we perform ahead of conceptualization. Few self defense tools available because System 1 needs to be instantaneous.
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Sarah Murray Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock @sapinker
I agree entirely about the humbling aspect of illusions. It's good to be reminded how very vulnerable we are to being completely and utterly duped by the clever manipulation of our preconceptions.
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Positive Valence Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock @sapinker
Tricksters take pride in their tricks. Fishing is trickery and it feels good when it works. It shouldn't be too much of a surprise that humans derive the same type of pleasure from tricking other humans. The steady-state would put a few really good tricksters mixed in with...
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Positive Valence Sep 6
Replying to @PTetlock @sapinker
...some good faith negotiators. The good faith negotiators would at best mitigate the effects of trickery and deception. Benevolence would have to trick the tricksters for more sophisticated and advanced social dynamics.
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