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@PTetlock | |||||
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I'm reasonably confident that Ian's "reasonable confidence" means roughly 60-80%, which is less vague than a lot of vague-verbiage forecasts.
The clearer you make your forecasts, the easier it is to spot mistakes & become better calibrated twitter.com/ianbremmer/sta…
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Jim Skidmore
@skidjame
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29. sij |
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@PredictIt currently has it at 71%, so at least in the betting market this is the conventional wisdom.
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Dan R Kunio國 Sparkman
@DanRSparkman
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29. sij |
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Also think the 60~80 range would fall into reasonable confidence
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