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Philip E. Tetlock
I'm reasonably confident that Ian's "reasonable confidence" means roughly 60-80%, which is less vague than a lot of vague-verbiage forecasts. The clearer you make your forecasts, the easier it is to spot mistakes & become better calibrated
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Jim Skidmore 29. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @PredictIt
currently has it at 71%, so at least in the betting market this is the conventional wisdom.
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Dan R Kunio國 Sparkman 29. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Also think the 60~80 range would fall into reasonable confidence
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