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Philip E. Tetlock
This superb article illustrates critical-reasoning skills that are also at the heart of the “superforecasting” research program. We’re all aiming at the same cognitive target:
“It was impossible to create good metrics. We tried using troop numbers trained, violence levels, control of territory and none of it painted an accurate
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Sameera Jade Daniels 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @WarOnTheRocks
In observing the statistical controversies, I find that there are interrelated sociological & structural actors that prove to be greater obstacles to better decision making.
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