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@PTetlock | |||||
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Business as usual at Davos:
1.The higher the status of forecasters, the vaguer their forecasts;
2.The more politicized the topic, the vaguer the forecasts;
3.The higher the stakes, the fewer the chances to learn from big shots' forecasting mistakes twitter.com/wfrhatch/statu…
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Brad
@BradCanKook
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20. sij |
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Do you think the DNI Global Trends reports do a good job at forecasting?
dni.gov/index.php/glob…
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Darshan Dorsey
@darshandorsey
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20. sij |
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Yes! Information asymmetry is the true name of the game, all power & profit flow from it.
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Dmitry Saava
@dsaava
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21. sij |
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Amazing. One thing I struggle to understand- what is are exact goals of Davos gatherings? Did it ever achieve anything tangible?
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Michael Hermens
@mhermens
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21. sij |
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How many of the forecasters have any of their own money attached to the forecast?
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