Twitter | Pretraživanje | |
Philip E. Tetlock
Business as usual at Davos: 1.The higher the status of forecasters, the vaguer their forecasts; 2.The more politicized the topic, the vaguer the forecasts; 3.The higher the stakes, the fewer the chances to learn from big shots' forecasting mistakes
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se" More
Brad 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Do you think the DNI Global Trends reports do a good job at forecasting?
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se"
Darshan Dorsey 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Yes! Information asymmetry is the true name of the game, all power & profit flow from it.
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se"
Dmitry Saava 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Amazing. One thing I struggle to understand- what is are exact goals of Davos gatherings? Did it ever achieve anything tangible?
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se"
Michael Hermens 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @bryan_caplan
How many of the forecasters have any of their own money attached to the forecast?
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se"