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Philip E. Tetlock
“Superforecasters” did so well in tournaments because our scientific competitors were allergic to the cognitive elitism of tracking above-average people into superteams. Tracking had exactly the inequality-amplifying effect that egalitarians fear tracking in schools will have
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Robin Hanson 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @ctwardy
Do you have a particular competitor in mind here? I don't see our Daggre team as having been averse to tracking.
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Charles R. Twardy 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @robinhanson @PTetlock
Yes/No: Mark Burgman (our team) pushed hard to diversify the Delphi groups, & disliked the ACE requirement to have a Bachelor's. But later made his own superteams. In the market, we mostly scrambled for ANY participation, partly because got there first. ;-)
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Alex Tabarrok 10. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
This interview with Magnus Carlsen on fantasy football is pretty funny. I'm not doing anything special, he says, just poring over data and using statistics to identify undervalued players!
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SuperBowlSuperBrowns 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
how can I be involved with superforecasters? I've done 538 2 years in a row and beat their algo both years
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Superforecastr 9. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @jkap44 @HumanForests @PavelDAtanasov
Our NSF research will be seeking volunteers soon to sign up. Follow and either my and/or feeds for more info to join as we get closer to launch, exp in May 2020
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dan dennis 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Everyone has the right to the best education - and it is in the interest of society that the talents of all citizens are developed optimally. As someone who went to a bad school, I know how dispiriting it is to sit in lessons that are too easy.
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Stefan Schubert 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Sorry, who were your scientific competitors? Is there a paper on this? Very interesting, thanks!
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Laura, no doubt 9. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @bryan_caplan
"Will have"? School tracking has been studied a lot, but needs to be studied better. In my case, it helped inequality (as my mom made LMC income) and efficiency (as I could not stand the boredom of regular classes). Here's a good 2019 literature survey.
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Jurij Fedorov 8. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @bryan_caplan
I've read this kind of statement several times in academic journals: "While IQ is the best predictor of job performance the tests are racist and we have laws against using them. Because they lead to companies not hiring enough people from certain races."
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