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Philip E. Tetlock
How to save lives and money: Define forecasting accuracy as skill at achieving both a high Hit rate & low False-Positive rate. It’s trivially easy to claim you can predict every recession, war,… when no one is tracking your False-Positive rate.
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Steve Sailer 2. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Personally, I don't like making predictions because I've lived long enough to know how complicated the future is. But I have a pretty good record of noticing recent trends, such as the Ferguson Effect by mid-2016: and World War T (transmania) in 2013.
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Dwight Schrute III 2. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Type 1 and 2
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