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@PTetlock | |||||
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How to save lives and money: Define forecasting accuracy as skill at achieving both a high Hit rate & low False-Positive rate. It’s trivially easy to claim you can predict every recession, war,… when no one is tracking your False-Positive rate. pic.twitter.com/0j7gPo4Bj0
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Steve Sailer
@Steve_Sailer
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2. sij |
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Personally, I don't like making predictions because I've lived long enough to know how complicated the future is. But I have a pretty good record of noticing recent trends, such as the Ferguson Effect by mid-2016:
takimag.com/article/the_le…
and World War T (transmania) in 2013.
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Dwight Schrute III
@Dwight_ARM
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2. sij |
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Type 1 and 2
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