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Philip E. Tetlock
A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quo
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Steve Sailer 29. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Most things keep on keeping on (most of the time). The main change in my daily life between 2000 and 2010 and 2020 is that my computer screen has grown from 15" to 24" to ... 43".
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Dan Gardner 29. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
And how do we even categorize what (I suspect) is the most common tendency in year-end writing: “extend the trend”? eg “the rising rate of terrorism will get much worse” or “stocks will soar to another record high.” Are these predictions of change or the status quo?
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Trevor G. Kerr 29. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Why wld political evolution be keyed to the turn of an artificial construct - decade?
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Michael C. Horowitz 29. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Good point...
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Joshua Taehyun Kim 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @asymmetricinfo
I think people overpredict change on a one year scale but underprerict over 10 years
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alluvial2019 29. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
What is false exactly?
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