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@PTetlock | |||||
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A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quo twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/s…
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Steve Sailer
@Steve_Sailer
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29. pro |
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Most things keep on keeping on (most of the time).
The main change in my daily life between 2000 and 2010 and 2020 is that my computer screen has grown from 15" to 24" to ... 43".
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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29. pro |
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And how do we even categorize what (I suspect) is the most common tendency in year-end writing: “extend the trend”? eg “the rising rate of terrorism will get much worse” or “stocks will soar to another record high.” Are these predictions of change or the status quo?
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Trevor G. Kerr
@tgk3130
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29. pro |
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Why wld political evolution be keyed to the turn of an artificial construct - decade?
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Michael C. Horowitz
@mchorowitz
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29. pro |
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Good point...
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Joshua Taehyun Kim
@jtk0621
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21. sij |
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I think people overpredict change on a one year scale but underprerict over 10 years
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alluvial2019
@alluvial2019
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29. pro |
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What is false exactly?
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