Twitter | Pretraživanje | |
Philip E. Tetlock
Vague-verbiage forecasts plant a jumble of probabilities in our minds that easily sum to < or > 1.0. So 2020 “could be” 1.Xi’s worst year (say 20%-80% range) year (say 10-40%) 3.a mix of successes & setbacks (say10-70%) Why not just give your best guess?
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se" More
Anthony Cutler 22. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Skyrms defends probabilities of probabilities. In the context of updating probabilities on the basis of uncertain information they make some sense. Having said that, I won't be offering any to my clients.
Reply Retweet Označi sa "sviđa mi se"