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@PTetlock | |||||
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Vague-verbiage forecasts plant a jumble of probabilities in our minds that easily sum to < or > 1.0. So 2020 “could be”
1.Xi’s worst year (say 20%-80% range)
2.best year (say 10-40%)
3.a mix of successes & setbacks (say10-70%)
Why not just give your best guess? pic.twitter.com/A3qNqKeIh3
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Anthony Cutler
@anthonyncutler
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22. pro |
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Skyrms defends probabilities of probabilities. In the context of updating probabilities on the basis of uncertain information they make some sense.
Having said that, I won't be offering any to my clients.
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