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Philip E. Tetlock
It looks like cost-free tomfoolery—but it's really costly. It means alpha-pundits have no incentive to become more accurate—& lower-status challengers, who got it right sooner, have no chance to be noticed
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Kester Leek 20. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @drjennings
Let's be fairer here. The first article is dated 20th November 2018 - over a year ago, and when the appeal of 'Corbynomics' was high.
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L Steven Goldblatt 21. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
Merry experience proves that. Swing for O.OO get many miss 1 out of 3.? i.e. .000. interest rate moves and Syria Law has been good Successfully defended espionage case USSDCa How many active cyber-measures against disinfo deep fakes? Working on that!
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Sleuth 20. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @t0nyyates
Story of my life! But Matt Goodwin is quite independent-minded I would say. The worst commentators simply ape the views of other, more alpha commentators. It’s safety in numbers: nobody cares if you’re all wrong together. Brexit has brought them out in numbers.
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