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Philip E. Tetlock
"Superforecasters" are better at tuning in signals—& tuning out noise. It’s not the millions of words had no effect. They had lots of effects, mostly tiny offsetting ones
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Pradyumna Prasad 19. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @ezraklein
How do you know how much to update for every new news piece? That is the part of superforecasting I didn't get
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Anthony Cutler 20. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @ezraklein
Beware polls that don't react to events ...
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L Steven Goldblatt 21. pro
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock @ezraklein
How can one have absolute confidence anything will happen other than Legarde and IMF and now ECB. Better practice between 30 and 70 except the Coast Starlite will make it between Seattle and LA cheers
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