A good read Nick, the only thing I keep coming back to though is the mortality rate is as it is because of lockdown right.. to loosen up to much and the mortality rate will become far higher?

Yes that is the big unknown. Certainly with a decent track and trace system many would argue it is possible to loosen restrictions a fair bit and control spread – especially if spread is among healthier population. And then you also need to balance out costs of restrictions

Thanks Nick, very interesting article. So, based on my age, my normal annual risk of dying is about 1%. Covid-19 risk is about the same, therefore do I interpret your article to mean my risk of death now doubles to 2% until we get a vaccine? #COVIDー19

That’s average for your age group so individual risk likely to be different. Most people have less than the average amount of risk because most of the risk in each age group is held by those in the poorest health.

I note your article focuses on the risk or death and does not mention anything about the risk of Covid triggering post viral chronic illness (such as ME/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome). newscientist.com/article/mg2463…

Those suffering from such conditions will tell you how debilitating they are, particularly in a society who doesn't fully understand or acknowledge the conditions. Most sufferers go ignored and shunned.

excellent article, quick Q about ave 40 y old having 1/1000 chance of dying from C19. Pre Covid, what was the chances of 40 year old dying 'from whatever', but not a pandemic. Answer would further help consideration of personal lifestyle risk strategies and wellbeing. Take care

the same 1/1000, including both healthy & unhealthy. So, eg obese, bad diet, high blood pressure etc will be more of those 1 in 1000 than non-obese, good blood pressure etc. A balanced diet, exercise, fresh air, as per 'normal' wellbeing.

Excellent article - good to see a risk based analysis.

100% of the population ain't getting infected, by any stretch of the imagination.