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Nate Silver
French pollsters have always had some trouble with the Le Pens, but FWIW they've sometimes missed high instead of low.
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Adrijan Mirsad Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
THe polls at 2002 rocketed the FN to joint second days before the election. It was a surprise but the pollsters did see the surge.
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
There is no message whatsoever coming out of that history, other than polls are just polls.
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
there's a SD of 4%. isn't that an interesting message?!
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Aaron MONSTERtgomery Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
That's not even a particularly notable amount of "trouble" for polls though, right?
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
It happens in every country with extreme candidates. People being surveyed do not answer truthfully. Same with Farage or Lega Nord.
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Macronyism Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
Nate Silver talking about innacuracy in polls 😂😂😂
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rc reed Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
"Les Pen"
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Deray Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
are you an expert on this subject?
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
Yeah but FN has been around for 30+years in France- pollsters have learned this
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
And point of table is no systematic bias
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
Do you know of pollsters correcting answers to polls? I don't. Happy to change my mind.
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
In France they do for sure !
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
They select a better pool, or they ask better questions. Are you sure that they change the answers?
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
This one I agree with. Two many forces working at the same time to draw an inference based on 5 or 6 data points.
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Sean Driscoll Apr 17
Replying to @NateSilver538
Perhaps they should use Le Pencils, then. (... I'm very sorry.)
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
Not sure about the details - a lot of reweighting going on for sure - used to be that FN vote was underreport by 50%
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
I think it's unethical to change the answers and I believe they don't do it. Let's avoid LePen-Melenchon and then I don't mind the SD.
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Francois Gourio Apr 17
Reweighting and changing answers is mathematically similar...
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Federico Gavazzoni Apr 17
Are you saying that they do reweighing assuming FN voters are potentially ashamed to admit they vote for it? I'd love to ask top pollsters.
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