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Nate Silver Nov 22
To follow: some *very* quick analysis which suggests the claim here of rigged results in Wisconsin is probably BS:
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Nate Silver Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Run a regression on Wisc. counties with >=50K people, and you find that Clinton improved more in counties with only paper ballots. HOWEVER:
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Nate Silver
...the effect COMPLETELY DISAPPEARS once you control for race and education levels, the key factors in predicting vote shifts this year.
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Ben Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
also, how many likely clinton voters got turned away due to their new voting restrictions?
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Paracelsus Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
I'm gonna pretend like I completely understand what's going on in that picture
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Ed Vielmetti Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
You are crediting yourself with way too many significant digits in that analysis.
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Tony Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Why are you afraid of an audit? The fucking Russian gov't has bragged about interfering in our election!
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Steven G. Harris Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
and an audit would certainly tell us whether your quick model was worth a damn this time
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Timothy Verstynen Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
why does controlling for race/edu impact the paper/electronic disparity? Are those correlated in the data?
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Nate Silver Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Maybe a more complicated analysis would reveal something, but usually bad news when a finding can't survive a basic sanity check like this.
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ffish Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
1) Why are you measuring the "shift" instead of predicting vote totals? 2) Why raw values instead of log(values)? [cont'd]
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ffish Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Population isn't distributed linearly, and the four largest counties in WI use paper. Could skew analysis.
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bearable technology Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
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Lurker Nov 22
Because paper and electronic ballots are used in different places, and different places have different race/edu
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Alex Blackwell Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Clintonistas hope you're as wrong with this as you were on Election Day.
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Jon Bender Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
Of course we don't know the full basis for Halderman et al's alleged claim, just thumbnail sketch in NY Mag.
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Toby Pinder Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
feels very p-hacky yeah
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J. Lang Wood Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
and yet you used the word 'probably' bs.
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Patrick Nov 22
Replying to @NateSilver538
thank you Nate. Appreciate you showing the regression!
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