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Nate Silver 24 Jun 16
Repeating myself, but the Brexit polls weren't bad. Showed a toss-up. Question is why so few people believed them.
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Nate Silver 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
Polling average missed the final outcome by ~4%. Given the (not-very-good) track record of UK polls about what you'd have a right to expect.
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Nate Silver 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
But despite polls showing the race roughly even & dodgy history of UK polls, betting markets had leave as a 4:1 underdog as of 24 hours ago.
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Nate Silver
p.s. Please be aware of my hindsight bias here. We didn't issue a UK referendum forecast and it's really easy to sound smart after the fact.
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dan 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
don't worry, nate, nobody thinks you're sounding smart
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Duncan Akers 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
you did say 3/1 was worth a bet given the uncertainty. 9/1 last night!
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Robert Morton 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
HINDSIGHT BIAS IS THE BEST KIND OF BIAS. WHO CARES IF YOU DIDN'T ISSUE A FORECAST. YOU ISSUED A PASTCAST.
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Jason ̆̈ At Home 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
a closed mouth gathers no foot.
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mathew willoughby 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
because without history of the Question, people believed people would revert to the status quo when it came to the crunch
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Sarah Wheale-Smith 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
I love your podcast, website and work you do but for those us who wanted to remain - too soon / you could've warned us
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alex popplewell 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
last night at 10pm you could get odds of 5-1 against Brexit and 8-1 on remain
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varsågod 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
you don't
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Amit Udeshi 24 Jun 16
Replying to @NateSilver538
better rehearse, I’m sure people will call you for comment today
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