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Nate Silver
I mostly agree with this, and also one lesson from previous primaries is that sometimes (fairly often, in fact) a candidate who you think has infinite momentum is in fact near their peak and you're buying at the top.
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Nate Silver Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
BUT: it's worth noting that Harris and Warren were regarded as pretty serious candidates before their rise in the polls, based on their accomplishments, favorability ratings, support from party elites, etc.
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Nate Silver Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
So are there going to be further "surprises" in the primary? Almost certainly. But it would be a much *bigger* surprise if, say, Marianne Williamson surged than if Cory Booker or one of the other candidates with sound fundamentals (Klobuchar? Castro?) did.
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Mike Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
But if there’s one thing Nate is sure of and that’s that Sanders has no chance, regardless of what the polls say!
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Scott Trever Dougan Jul 2
1) Nate didn’t say Sanders has NO chance; he regularly says Sanders is the 3rd or4th most likely to win and 2) Sanders has been dropping like a stone in the polls.
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Tanya Evans Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
I love me some Mayor Pete
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Erinn O'Dear Jul 3
Replying to @EvansTanya86
I think he was low key referring to Pete.
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Preston Hutson Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
Biden showed weakness and he can never get that aura of invincibility back. It’s what Obama did to HRC in 2007-8. Once the presumptive favorite is proven mortal, game on! The blood is in the water.
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David Peck Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain.
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Mcam Jul 3
Replying to @NateSilver538
Honestly, it’s like three quarters of twitter never went through an election. The odds that the top eight candidates finish in their current order is close to zero but that doesn’t mean Harris or Biden isn’t the winner.
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Zee Harris Jul 2
Replying to @NateSilver538
Who thought Beto was amazing? You really do just make stuff up
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Andrew Redlawsk Jul 3
This guy was asleep for all of 2018
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