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Nate Silver
FWIW, my current thinking on the tiers in the Democratic primary, in terms of likelihood of winning the nomination. This is very rough, obviously: Tier 1a: Harris, Biden Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar
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Nate Silver Apr 10
Replying to @NateSilver538
I don't have particularly strong feelings about the order of the candidates after that, but I suppose I'd go: Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan Tier 4: Everyone else Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.
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Nate Silver Apr 11
Replying to @NateSilver538
Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable.
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Ezra Klein Apr 11
Replying to @NateSilver538
Why is Harris tier 1 and not tier 2?
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Nate Silver Apr 11
Replying to @ezraklein
Polls and fundraising are both pretty decent; ability to build diverse coalition with support from different wings of the party; maybe the closest thing to a "Party Decides" candidate; no obvious reason she *can't* win; calendar (with CA voting early) is pretty friendly to her.
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Ezra Klein Apr 11
Replying to @NateSilver538
Be curious to see if she becomes a "party decides" candidate. Definitely could be, but I'd want to see some big unexpected endorsements before I say that. Party seems very undecided to me.
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Nate Silver Apr 11
Replying to @ezraklein
Things definitely seem to be a bit frozen now, which in some ways makes sense because other than Biden deciding whether or not to run and Buttigieg's surge, not very much is changing. We'll see if the debates kick off a more dynamic period.
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