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Nate Silver
FWIW, my current thinking on the tiers in the Democratic primary, in terms of likelihood of winning the nomination. This is very rough, obviously: Tier 1a: Harris, Biden Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar
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Nate Silver 10 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
I don't have particularly strong feelings about the order of the candidates after that, but I suppose I'd go: Tier 3a: Castro, Gillibrand, Inslee Tier 3b: Yang, Hickenlooper, Ryan Tier 4: Everyone else Abrams would be at least Tier 2 if she ran.
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Nate Silver 11 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable.
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Ezra Klein 11 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
Why is Harris tier 1 and not tier 2?
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Nate Silver 11 Apr 19
Replying to @ezraklein
Polls and fundraising are both pretty decent; ability to build diverse coalition with support from different wings of the party; maybe the closest thing to a "Party Decides" candidate; no obvious reason she *can't* win; calendar (with CA voting early) is pretty friendly to her.
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Travis 10 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
I think Bernie should be on 1a. And I’m not even a fan. Lol
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Van Helsinger/Van Helsongwriter 10 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
I think we should settle for a Harris/Sanders ticket and be done with it.
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Brian Tanner 10 Apr 19
Oh my dear sweet Lord, what a horribly awful working relationship would that be!
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Joe McGinniss Jr. 10 Apr 19
unites multiple factions. And her prosecutor background will play well in the general. Paired with and it's a lock!
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Brett Auriemma 10 Apr 19
A lock to lose the Senate again
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OUFENIX (D) 10 Apr 19
Replying to @NateSilver538
I fear Bernie is higher than tier 2. Like, serious fear.
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Tired of Your Lies 10 Apr 19
Replying to @oufenix @NateSilver538
Hoping his 20% is like Trump's 30% in the country, static and unlikely to change, leaving 80% up for grabs.
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