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Nate Silver
Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.
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Nate Silver retweeted
Neoliberal 🌐 12h
PredictIt right now
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Nate Silver 20h
Replying to @NateSilver538
Important to note though that "the suburbs put Biden over the top" isn't the same as saying "college-educated white voters put Biden over the top". A lot of the key suburban counties are pretty racially mixed. Not in Wisconsin I guess but certainly in Georgia, for instance.
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Nate Silver 20h
This is just plain as day. The suburbs, especially high-education suburbs, are where Biden really outperformed Clinton, in a way that was likely pretty decisive in the Electoral College.
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Nate Silver 20h
Yeah, important to distinguish between the theory that the pandemic cost Trump the election (maybe not) vs. that incompetent handling of the pandemic cost him the election (maybe so).
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Nate Silver Nov 28
SOLD OUT OF HAMILTON
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Nate Silver Nov 27
idk I think normie Dems also recognize that just getting Trump out of office is a hugely consequential event and that take has been significantly underweighted in the punditry about the election.
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Nate Silver Nov 27
Replying to @NateSilver538
One thing I've noticed too is my real life Democratic friends are happy that Biden won and aren't obsessed with the question of how did Trump beat the point spread or got sorta-kinda-close. It's a more grounded perspective than you get on here or on the op-ed pages.
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Nate Silver Nov 27
Replying to @NateSilver538
How Did the Atlanta Falcons Score 28 Points?
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Nate Silver Nov 27
Here's what I'm left wondering: Why Did Even More Americans Vote for Biden?
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Replying to @HeerJeet
I've never actually bet on a political betting market—my employer wouldn't like it and its unethical in various ways so I'm not sure how easy it is to get your money in/out. But in theory, yeah, it's free money.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Yeah, agree 100%.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
No, I surely wouldn't. I wouldn't really give a shit because I don't think it's ethically problematic and it would probably wind up increasing traffic, etc to the story if we played our cards right.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Yeah I think this theory is pretty bizarre. Unless there's an explicit agreement to the contrary I think the subject of a story has every right in the world to preemptively react to the story.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Replying to @conorsen
Lotta people clinging to bad takes from when it seemed like the pandemic was primarily an urban/high-density thing.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Replying to @MattGlassman312
Lots of parallels to other COVID related stuff, where opinion is highly polarized between American liberals and conservatives on questions that are often 1) very challenging and 2) don't neatly line up with American liberalism or conservatism in any obvious philosophical way.
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Nate Silver Nov 26
Political betting markets still give Trump a >10% chance, both nationally and in several states where *results have been certified*. As I've said before, it's a bit alarming there are so many delusional people out there that the market equilibrium is this detached from reality.
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Nate Silver retweeted
David Gilbert Nov 26
Here’s how credible Sidney Powell’s lawsuits are: In the first eight words she spells the word “district” wrong — twice
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Nate Silver Nov 25
Really part of a pattern of Biden performing well in the Northeast; you can almost see where the Northeast-Midwest divide runs through Pennsylvania. We're a big fan of using variables based on regions in our models as they're often surprisingly robust.
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Nate Silver Nov 25
Replying to @NateSilver538
Also, what is their partner the University of Oxford doing here? I would have thought that of all the various vaccine candidates, this one would be most above board as far as applying academic levels of transparency.
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Nate Silver Nov 25
Replying to @NateSilver538
It's not like this is even working as a play to persuade investors; AztraZeneca's stock has fallen a fair bit this week.
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