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Nate Silver
Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.
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Nate Silver 10h
Replying to @NateSilver538
The numbers for the past couple of weeks have come in a pinch better (fewer deaths) than some of the models expected, which is good news, of course. But only slightly, and they've generally been well within each model's confidence interval.
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Nate Silver 10h
It's actually quite well in line with expert projections from April, etc. The media tends to focus on outlier projections that are either too high or too low. (Not unlike polls!) But the consensus of projections has done a rather good job.
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Nate Silver 10h
Replying to @NateSilver538
The usual caveats apply, though. There's a LOT of state to state variation, with clearer declines in the Northeast and the Midwest than in the South and the West. And these numbers are backward looking. We don't yet know much about the impact of Memorial Day, protests, etc.
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Nate Silver 10h
Replying to @NateSilver538
Folks, this is a pretty good report. Midweek days (Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays) typically feature high death counts. But we've now had two days in a row with deaths < 1,000. Also 3 out of 4 days with a positive test rate <5%.
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Nate Silver 10h
US daily numbers via : Newly reported deaths Today: 909 Yesterday: 995 One week ago (5/28): 1,279 Newly reported cases T: 21K Y: 20K 5/28: 22K Newly reported tests T: 466K Y: 457K 5/28: 408K Positive test rate T: 4% Y: 4% 5/28: 6%
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Nate Silver retweeted
Craig Spencer MD MPH 16h
Fellow New Yorkers: If you've been peacefully protesting or staying at home, NYC is recommending ALL New Yorkers get a COVID test. Testing is FREE and widely available, regardless of immigration status. To locate a testing site, go 👇 or call 311:
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Nate Silver 16h
Replying to @BenjySarlin
FYI, Spain saying it had 0 deaths in a day is complete and total bullshit.
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Nate Silver 17h
Yeah, and part of the whole Southern Strategy was communicating via subtext, euphemism, etc. Whereas Trump always says the quiet part out loud.
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Nate Silver retweeted
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux 18h
Chauvin & the other 3 officers who were on the scene at George Floyd's death are facing criminal charges. But that's the exception, not the rule - it's still very rare for police to face legal consequences for misconduct. Here's why.
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Nate Silver retweeted
Perry Bacon Jr. 19h
We looked at the views of police officers on race and policing, with the help of some great polling from .
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Nate Silver retweeted
John Burn-Murdoch 24h
NEW: much has been made this week of Spain recording zero new Covid deaths for two successive days. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchéz called it "A success for all". Unfortunately it’s also nonsense. Story by me & : Thread follows:
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Replying to @AJentleson
Plausible, though? I guess if Trump is down 10 points in early October and he thinks it might help the GOP cut its losses in Congress...
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Nate Silver retweeted
James Poniewozik Jun 3
Replying to @NateSilver538
Fox News' 8-11 p.m. lineup. Trump's power is more media- than party-based. Even then, the damage might be more a murder-suicide deal. (Oh also Fox & Friends, but that would probably hurt him more emotionally.)
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Replying to @conorsen @mattyglesias
LOL I was just thinking that. If it were Romney, Hatch and a bunch of other LDS-affiliated politicians, then maybe?
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Who's in the overlapping part of the Venn diagram of Republicans/conservatives who (i) could plausibly repudiate Trump and (ii) would materially hurt Trump if they did?
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Replying to @NateSilver538
But while deaths have been falling, what's happening to cases is more ambiguous. My guess is we have maybe 20 states where the situation is clearly getting better, 3-5 where it's getting worse, and another ~25 where it depends on how you construe the data.
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Replying to @NateSilver538
So... a positive milestone. This is the first time we've been under 1,000 deaths (albeit just barely: 995) on a day that didn't follow a weekend or holiday since April 1. Wednesdays have generally been pretty bad days, in fact. So that's good news.
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Nate Silver Jun 3
US daily numbers via : Newly reported deaths Today: 995 Yesterday: 1,192 One week ago (5/27): 1,333 Newly reported cases T: 20K Y: 24K 5/27: 19K Newly reported tests T: 457K Y: 417K 5/27: 292K Positive test rate T: 4% Y: 6% 5/27: 7%
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Nate Silver Jun 3
On a whim I decided to look up what the top news story was at this point (June 3 at 4:40 pm) exactly 4 years ago.
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Nate Silver Jun 3
Replying to @NateSilver538
To add to the complication, it's possible hospitalizations & death rates will be lower than before if new cases are primarily among younger people who are quicker to resume social activity. So it's plausible infections are growing but that deaths are declining in some states.
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