Twitter | Search | |
Nate Silver
Editor-in-Chief, . Author, The Signal and the Noise (). Sports/politics/food geek.
23,902
Tweets
1,178
Following
3,203,595
Followers
Tweets
Nate Silver 4h
Is this like a $200 clue in Jeopardy where the answer is obvious but you have to phrase it in the form of a question?
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 5h
Replying to @NateSilver538
re: Rasmussen: worth noting that founder Scott Rasmussen was ousted from Rasmussen Reports several years ago (in 2013). While their polls have always had a GOP lean, Scott was a good guy who cared about polling accuracy. The guy who took over (Ted Carroll) is…a…different story.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver retweeted
Chris Herring 5h
Latest for : The Lakers Land Anthony Davis. Ok; Now What?
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 5h
U mad bro?
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 6h
One interesting fact is that Rasmussen had Republicans winning the popular vote for the US House last year and Democrats actually won it by **9** points, which makes for about twice as bad a fuck-up as any pollster had in 2016.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 8h
A lot to give up but if the Lakers can sign a 3rd guy (haven't done the math but it looks like they have maybe $30m-ish available?) a team of LeBron + AD + FA TBD + Kuzma + 10 replacement level dudes might be the best team in a league where everything's in transition/turmoil.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 15h
Replying to @NateSilver538
In other words, some voters who like both candidates (or even mildly prefer Warren) might stick with Bernie so long as he seems to have the clearer path to the nomination. But the moment she appears equally/more viable, they could jump to her instead.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver 15h
While Sanders supporters and Warren supporters are far from perfectly overlapping, if I were Bernie's campaign I'd nonetheless be concerned that if Warren passes me in the polls at some point, it could trigger a bandwagon effect that would be hard to come back from.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver retweeted
Laura Bronner Jun 14
How unlikely was this large a discrepancy between the two debates, given the DNC's stratified randomization methodology? Pretty unlikely, but 11% of simulations are even more imbalanced.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 14
Replying to @TheStalwart
Is Taleb part of the Intellectual Dark Web?
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 14
Replying to @micahcohen
I don't think it matters *that* much. But there's also the chance that the first debate becomes about a breakout moment for Booker, Klob or Beto, all of whom are probably fairly decent debators who have been struggling to gain traction.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 14
I think I'd rather have Biden in my group if I were Warren or pretty much any of the other frontrunners.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver retweeted
FiveThirtyEight Jun 14
No, the Warriors weren’t full-strength for these NBA Finals. But if you think Toronto became a champion solely because of that, you’re selling the club short.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 14
Empirically, the margin of error on general election polls conducted this far out is around... 25 points!
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Replying to @baseballot
Shit, didn't realize this whole problem re: the Darien Gap
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Just watched a Canadian team win a championship in an American sport while drinking beer from a Dutch multinational conglomerate at an Irish-themed bar in Brazil while wearing a cap with a Japanese baseball team's logo. Then took an Uber home. Have achieved peak -ism.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Don't asterisk this series. The Raptors are a great team and deserving champion and not really any telling who would be better at full strength.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Hey folks we're having a lot of fun liveblogging Game 6 if you want to join us:
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Andrew, please don't become an . Virtually all polls now either include cellphones or are conducted online.
Reply Retweet Like
Nate Silver Jun 13
Replying to @kpelton
If we generalize to the risk of a serious re-injury (not necessarily ACL) under conditions where a guy 1) comes back a couple weeks ahead of regular-season timetables 2) is in very vigorous game action after 3) barely having practiced...IDK how to estimate but gut says ~20-30%.
Reply Retweet Like