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Mike McDonald Jun 27
Free throw PBs: Home rim: 78/100 (June 27) Regulation rim: 76/100 (June 25) Outdoor double rim: 69/100 (June 26)
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Max Chiswick Jun 27
Replying to @MikeMcDonald89
here are 3 sims with diff strats all assuming 78% make
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Mike McDonald Jun 27
Replying to @chisness
That's quite exciting! What strategies did each use? My goal likely is to chase PBs rather than chase 90s. But if come November my PB is still low (say under 86) I'll likely stop trying to get PBs and just go for 90 (perhaps say quitting a 61/72 session to save 28 shots)
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Max Chiswick Jun 27
Replying to @MikeMcDonald89
The top is playing until winning or missing 11, middle and bottom resetting if current expectation is less than starting expectation. Middle using reset numbers calculated from binomial model and bottom from reinforcement learning model. You have any other ideas to try?
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Mike McDonald Jun 28
Replying to @chisness
I've thought about it a bit and don't have any good ideas if it's a binomial distribution. That said I imagine trying to model something to factor in my particular degree of hot hand might be useful.
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Mike McDonald Jun 28
Replying to @chisness
Perhaps I have a ceiling of 7% higher than avg and a floor 15% lower than avg and each consecutive make/miss moves me 1/4th of the way in that direction. Obviously analyzing the data is better but if we randomly assume I'm a 78% shooter with an 85% ceiling and 63% floor...
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Mike McDonald Jun 28
Replying to @chisness
maybe after 1 make I shoot 80%, 2 makes 81, 8 makes 83 etc, and after 1 miss 74, 2 misses 71, 4 misses 67 etc. Something like that could be relevant (ie if I am 14-2 continue if I've missed the last 1 but quit if I've missed the last 2)
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Max Chiswick Jul 6
Replying to @MikeMcDonald89
if you miss 3 then make 1 are you back at base rate or base + 1? (in general: does each streakbreaking shot take you back to base or increment from where you were?)
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Mike McDonald
Great question. Random example is if each make takes me 1/4th of the way to my ceiling and each miss takes me 1/3rd to my floor So if we say 65 floor, 85 ceiling, 75 avg Make = (85-75)/4+75 = 77.5 Make 2 = (85-77.5)/4 +77.5 = 79.37 Make 2 miss 1 = (65-79.37)/3+ 79.37 = 74.58
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Max Chiswick Jul 6
Replying to @MikeMcDonald89
This is a 100k trial sim using the same reset strategy as before, but with your updated p_make setup, which gives an avg p_make of 80.5%. Shots until success is about 1/10th of having a fixed 78% make percentage and about 1/2 of having a fixed 80.5% make percentage.
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PBarryMN Jul 6
So it might take anywhere between 1 and 15000 tries. Cool
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