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Nikolay Markov
Senior Economist, Pictet Asset Management. All views are my own.
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Nikolay Markov 1h
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด is the only hawk left in town signalling further rate hike based on: . Solid domestic growth & above normal capacity utilization BUT . Headline & core inflation have peaked . Global risks are rising =>there is limited scope for further tightening
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Nikolay Markov Jun 19
Finally some evidence of rising inflationary pressures
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Nikolay Markov Jun 13
abandoned 3-month Libor target range in favor of the policy rate based on SARON. .2019 infl. fcst. revised up on higher import prices .Medium-term inflation pressures remain muted . still highly valued .Risks tilted to downside on global factors =>on hold for longer
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Nikolay Markov Jun 6
Kuroda points to crucial role of Information & Communication Technology to improve banking access & address market failure to prevent future financial crises
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Nikolay Markov Jun 6
Mark Carney pointing to disproportionate use of given the share of US economy in world GDP
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Nikolay Markov Jun 6
Mark Carney focusing on rising EM FX debt & market debt financing as amplification risk factors for capital flows given US dollar dominance
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Nikolay Markov May 31
Replying to @OlgaCotaga
Yes with pleasure Olga
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Nikolay Markov May 31
How should central banks respond to FX flash crashes? Find out my takeaway in this article
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Nikolay Markov May 31
Replying to @OlgaCotaga
Thanks Olga for sharing the article
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Nikolay Markov May 29
Weakening growth prospects in
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Nikolay Markov May 27
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ GDP growth skyrocketed in Q1 2019. However, the details are less appealing: . Net exports surge was led by strong imports drop . Exports growth was almost flat Business investment pick-up was the key positive takeaway =>2019 forecast revised up to 1.5% in line with
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Nikolay Markov May 22
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต manufacturing PMI is not as bad as it looks: . New orders improved . Inventories dropped => The forward-looking new orders to inventories rose in expansionary zone for the first time since January signalling some stabilization in the sector.
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Nikolay Markov May 20
GDP growth led by net exports is not as bright as it looks: . Strong exports & imports drop . Subdued consumer spending . Slowing private investment => subdued 2019 growth & rising downside risks to the outlook
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Nikolay Markov retweeted
Europe Elects May 19
European election 2019 23 May: ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง 24 May: ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ 25 May: ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ 26 May: ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Source: European Parliament
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Nikolay Markov retweeted
Patrick Zweifel May 16
โˆš With Huawei on the Entity List, intensifies its tech war with & exacerbates the impact on Global Value Chains (GVC) โˆš If supply chains start to be really disrupted, countries with high GVC participation rates will suffer the most, more than China & specially US
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Nikolay Markov May 15
Further evidence of recovering activity
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Nikolay Markov May 15
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง labour market is tight but there are already signs it is reaching a peak: . Earnings growth has started slowing down . Payrolls growth is loosing steam => conditions are still supportive of solid consumer spending
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Nikolay Markov retweeted
Patrick Zweifel May 14
โˆš retaliated on $60bn of goods by rising the (weighted average) tariff rate to c.18% from c.8.5%. โˆš Retaliation measures by main trade partners cover some 8% of US exports and will have a limited impact on US growth as they represent a modest 0.6% of GDP
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Nikolay Markov May 13
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Q1 2019 GDP growth strongly surged led by domestic demand: . Private consumption & investment jumped . Exports are disappointing reflecting weaker global trade =>2019 GDP growth to be better than expected around potential
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Nikolay Markov May 13
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งIs it the end of the house prices slump? . Halifax house prices surged to highest pace since vote . Low rates, rising real wages & fading uncertainty to support moderate rebound ahead
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