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Marco Piani
Tweeting and not tweeting at the same time. Physicist by training, silly by choice.
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Marco Piani 10m
Thanks for clarifying. Where do you get the 0.6% countrywide in the later period?
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Marco Piani 2h
Also: the IFR is very much dependent on age, as you know, so a change in the age profile of the infected may explain a lot
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Marco Piani 2h
Thanks. Where did you get the IFR for the most recent period indicated?
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Marco Piani retweeted
Dr. Theresa Tam 3h
1/3 Living with is about achieving a balance that allows us to enjoy the spaces and services that have re-opened thanks to our hard work, while at the same time protecting our communities and loved ones. ↑ your :
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Marco Piani 3h
Replying to @hassankhan
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Marco Piani 4h
Yes, there are indeed excess deaths now that have made the ratio of cumulatives stop declining. Excess deaths in August were likely related to heat waves; the ones appearing now are likely COVID (my opinion) This is from Euromomo. Weeks from and including 34 are incomplete.
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Marco Piani 5h
Replying to @CorsIAQ
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Marco Piani 5h
Replying to @ProfCaryCooper
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Marco Piani 5h
Yes, it decreases for Eurostat countries (which countries that means I am not sure) because there have been less excess deaths. Notice that if there were excess deaths now but at a slower percentage than in spring, it would still decreases in time, because it is about cumulative
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Marco Piani 5h
Replying to @MarioBerky @quantian1
Well, I do not know that. What I know is this in this figure. I have not calculated this for excess deaths yet, but the large disparity in *reported* deaths per capita would make it quite surprising (for me) if the relation was inverted for excess deaths.
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Marco Piani 6h
I selected the same range you had shown in one of the graphs that was shared and shaded
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Marco Piani 6h
This was a range of weeks, no?
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Marco Piani 6h
Here the graph (obtained adjusting the parameters on the website)
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Marco Piani 6h
... excess deaths or even just like normal death levels, that does not add up. Note that flu season will likely have less flu deaths because of the precautions related to COVID-19. Total deaths will really be about a non-trivial balance between positive and detrimenal effects.
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Marco Piani 6h
.. 2) weeks 34 and beyond are incomplete; as you said, we do not know yet, but the reported deaths about COVID-19 are indicative 3) there is the entire (somewhat uncomforting) narrative about the fact that many people would have died anyway this year. If we continue to see...
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Marco Piani 6h
Not necessarily making comparisons with specific years, given that the statement was about excess deaths, but even looking at that: 1) there are more excess deaths than all past years in week 33 (weeks prior are related to heat waves, I believe) and 28-33 are among the highest..
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Marco Piani 6h
Likely has not looked at Euromomo for a while, after declaring it over in Europe. But deaths (not the dead...) can come back.
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Marco Piani 6h
Replying to @MarioBerky @quantian1
Thanks. The question was about the excess deaths and ‘s statement. Certainly the US is worse for reported deaths.
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Marco Piani 6h
... infection rates that are due to behaviour and preventive measures that change in time. When the basic reproduction number is fixed, the basic models predict just one peak/wave, but that’s not necessarily what happens in reality (including because of seasonality/weather :-) )
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Marco Piani 7h
... to measures that delay the spread, so when the measures are relaxed and/or there are superspreading events, one sees new growths. My understanding is that the formulas/modes used by are pretty simplistic, and are not really well suited to capture changes in...
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