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Greg Lyle
Owner of Innovative Research Group
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Greg Lyle 3h
Replying to @Mikercorcoran
Yes
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Greg Lyle 6h
This is a link to the results I discuss in todays Hill Times article. The horserace numbers were shared earlier and are also on the site.
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Greg Lyle 6h
How will the campaign narrative frame the blackface issue. Is it a plot driven story that fades, or a vehicle for Canadians to reconsider how they view Trudeau?
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Greg Lyle 6h
As always, I will go where the numbers take me.
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
Fair point We rushed a bit to share the data and did not think a lot about the palate. Note taken.
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
Replying to @chelcad
218.
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
Latest horserace numbers from the weekend. Not much change. Includes some analysis of likely voters. More to follow.
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
Just over 1-in-4 Canadians tell us they experience discrimination in their daily life. Last week they liked Trudeau better than average and gave the Liberals a bigger lead over the CPC than other voters. What now?
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
Replying to @keithbaldrey
If the cpc stays firm while liberal voters defect or stay home, it is a good day for the cpc.
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Greg Lyle Sep 19
My daughter Clare profiled by her college. Proud Dad!
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Greg Lyle Sep 18
Yes, 1200 is enough for the overall picture and Ontario will have a sample of about 500. But regions like the Atlantic or the Prairies will have around 100. The 905 will likely be just over 100. At that size, differences between polls of 10% are statistically not significant.
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Greg Lyle Sep 18
The regional numbers have very low 'n's' in a sample of 1,200 so it is hard to be certain changes are real and not just due to sample. This is true for almost all of our polls collectively, not just .
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Greg Lyle Sep 17
Replying to @2closetocall
Generally yes. The exception is the struggling middle class. Which is the focus of the cpc campaign. Far from over.
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Greg Lyle Sep 17
Replying to @bklunder @Chris_arnade
There is certainly a significant pool of economically centre left but culturally conservative voters in Quebec. They have a home in the Bloc. In ROC, nativism is more likely associated with more right wing economic politics.
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Greg Lyle Sep 17
This is the article writing up the deck I tweeted yesterday.
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Greg Lyle Sep 16
It's complicated. On the one hand, Bernier may peel off some CPC votes. On the other hand, Bernier is likely to attack Scheer for being too moderate which works against Trudeau's efforts to paint Scheer as extreme.
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Greg Lyle Sep 16
Replying to @nspector4
I was surprised he agreed to two chances for Blanchet to pin him down on Bill 21.
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Greg Lyle Sep 16
Replying to @nspector4
The earlier numbers suggest Libs looking pretty good in Quebec. See this deck especially slide 15 showing them very strong in their 2015 NDP pick-ups and slide 17 showing them narrowly ahead of the Bloc in the remaining NDP seats. But campaigns matter.
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Greg Lyle Sep 16
Replying to @LyleGreg
4/4 The Struggling Middle Class. A key focus of the 2015 election was the struggling middle class. Roughly a third of Canadians believe in the Canadian Dream but are failing to get their piece of it. The CPC enjoy a wide lead among these voters with 42% support.
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