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Scott Lemieux
It's also crucial to understand that the Wisconsin gerrymander, for example, is essentially unbreakable. Wisconsin Republicans could lose by more than 10% statewide and maintain control of the legislature
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Scott Lemieux Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
The old conventional wisdom that gerrymandering is risky in a swing state because it makes you vulnerable in a wave election just doesn't apply to some of the new computer-generated gerrymanders
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Stephen Judkins Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
One interesting point is that gerrymanders like this have pretty extreme tail risk for the gerrymandering party. Sure, it's very unlikely that Republicans could lose by 15% but if they do Democrats could gain an enormous majority
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MKE is the Life for me Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
I left WI in 2009 and returned in 2016 - I weep at the damage done by Walker and the WI GOP...
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Molly Maguire fan acct. Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
Supreme Courts take
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Scott Lemieux Jul 1
Replying to @stephenjudkins
That risk is really trivial, though.
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Stephen Judkins Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
Right now, at a time of high negative partisanship and locked-in voters, it is trivial. But this situation will not last forever.
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David Jul 1
And if it happened the legislature would meet in emergency session to vest all lawmaking power in the state Supreme Court before the handoff.
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Stephen Judkins Jul 1
Yeah, seems likely they won't give up easily. But, you know, the Soviet Union collapsed. These things won't last forever, even if they can hold on for a good long time
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Stephen Judkins Jul 1
I don't, however, mean to argue that this stuff isn't awful and anti-democratic, hence the Soviet Union analogy
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Jef Poskanzer Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM @trabernlaw
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
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State Brave Person Jul 1
“this situation will not last forever” is something I can’t disprove, but discounts that the GOP will control the Supreme Court for basically the next 25-30 years and the Senate for, idk 10(?) minimum, so nothing prevents the GOP from just tossing out boxes of votes
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Stephen Judkins Jul 1
Sure. The reigns of some very brutal dictators that have done considerably more to tamp down dissent have ended, too. It's bad but the future is a different world. It's time to look for every opportunity to fight back.
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Scott Lemieux Jul 1
Replying to @stephenjudkins
It's not just that Dems winning the state by 15 point margin is enormously unlikely, it's that control of the legislature is far more important than the margin.
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Kristin Rawls Jul 1
North Carolina too.
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Filbèrt Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
So shorter Roberts: "we won, you lost, get over it"
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Jon Kortebein Jul 1
The thinnest reed is evidently completely compelling?
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Saraidh Jul 1
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
When consider Wisconsin's gerrymander, I keep going back to this chart and the number of juuuust over the line results in a wave year.
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Greg Packnett Jul 2
Replying to @LemieuxLGM
Tammy won in a majority of assembly districts. It just has to be a really big wave.
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Alex Jul 2
But while they last it will suck pretty bad and it may in fact last until we die.
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