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Reto Knutti
Excellent synthesis by Caldwell et al. of 19 modeling studies relating observations to climate sensitivity. Conclusion: climate sensitivity is very unlikely to be low, i.e. future warming from CO2 will not be small.
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Reto Knutti 1 May 18
Replying to @Knutti_ETH
Largely confirming our recent assessment of climate sensitivity, with a record 469 references [honestly, not recommended if you want to quickly write a paper... Charney in 1979 cited 14 papers, used five versions of 2 models]
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Reto Knutti 1 May 18
Replying to @Knutti_ETH
Caldwell also argue that many of these constraints are not robust, or are the same. Danger of fishing for correlations in datasets with many dimensions and models that share biases and code.
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Edward Tourney 2 May 18
Replying to @Knutti_ETH
Can I get an estimate ECS range?
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Reto Knutti 2 May 18
Replying to @EtriesofNobles
IPCC said likely (>66%) 1.5-4.5°C. I would put the range at 2-4.5°C. This is an expert assessment based on hundreds of studies, reviewed here:
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Reto Knutti 1 May 18
Replying to @etzpcm @AndrewDessler
Except that forcing is not observed, and that the "real world" is one of the simple energy balance models that is known to be biased: See the commets by . Every estimate of ECS is a combination of a model and obs.
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Chris Colose 1 May 18
Replying to @Knutti_ETH
Always good when 50 emergent constraints each explain 50% of the variance in sensitivity!
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Grassland 2 May 18
Replying to @Knutti_ETH @coxypm
does this cast doubt on your recent study?
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