Twitter | Search | |
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
GDP for Q2 fell by 10% That's bad. Really bad. As in the worst decline in quarterly GDP in recorded U.S. history.
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Many headlines will say GDP fell 32.9%. What they mean is that it fell at an annualized rate of -32.9% which is the result of a thought experiment asking how much lower would GDP be if the recent rate of decline persisted for a year. But no-one thinks that'll happen. Ignore it
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
As horrific as the GDP number is, it's basically reporting something that we all already knew -- that economic activity came to a screeching halt as the virus altered the contours of our lives. Millions lost their jobs, and the real issue is how our economy recovers.
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
The *quarterly* drop in GDP is likely larger than experienced at any point in the Great Depression. But that's not because the Great Suppression is deeper (yet). Rather, the Great Suppression played out more quickly than the Great Depression so the bad news was more concentrated.
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers
What's more worrying is that months after the virus arrived, we still have more people losing their jobs each week than at any point during the Great Recession. The short-term virus-related economic suppression is turning into a more enduring recession.
Reply Retweet Like More
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
The nominal decline in GDP was actually larger than the real decline because average prices across the economy are falling. (Though covid makes interpreting these prices changes more fraught than usual). The Fed's target (PCE deflator) declined at an annualized rate of -1.9%.
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Some context: Personal income actually rose a staggering 7.3% in Q2, even as GDP fell -10%. The difference? An extraordinary level of government support through economic impact payments, unemployment assistance, and PPP for businesses. (Source: )
Reply Retweet Like
Justin Wolfers Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
The implication of rising personal incomes in Q2 coupled with declining personal outlays is that the personal saving rate rose massively to an unheard-of 25.7%! (More generally, beware of simple stories about what's been happening to a pandemic economy.)
Reply Retweet Like
Michael K Roberson Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
I dont think anyone believed this wasnt going to be a long term recession except jawboning pundits
Reply Retweet Like
drew Jul 30
Well we could just spend massively for a year or so
Reply Retweet Like
👠CAM #RidinWithBIDENHARRIS 90 Days Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Colleges and universities are getting ready to lay off lots of people. That's a huge number of people entering unemployment numbers
Reply Retweet Like
Christine MacDonald Jul 30
Just wait till October. Numbers will be large and long lasting.
Reply Retweet Like
Trounce GOP. #GoJoe Jul 30
Well when everything closes down again for real to halt the spread, it should be a full blown Depression.
Reply Retweet Like
Joshua Hunter Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
The time bought from lockdowns was completely squandered. Could have built a robust containment infrastructure. Devastating.
Reply Retweet Like
Sparktacular Jul 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Why wouldn't this be at least in part, due to new mandated business closures due to virus outbreaks?
Reply Retweet Like