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Justin Wolfers
This is stunning: Nearly half of the Q1 decline in GDP can be attributed to healthcare, which is presumably delaying of elective procedures. It's a strange reality that in the midst of a pandemic, we have a healthcare-led recession.
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Justin Wolfers Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Perhaps this points to problems in GDP. We stopped elective procedures to preserve capacity for covid patients. Creating covid capacity is productive and important. If the government had paid hospitals to do this, it would count toward GDP. It didn't, so it doesn't count as GDP
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Justin Wolfers Apr 30
Replying to @JustinWolfers
I've dug a bit deeper into this, and it appears that the decline in healthcare was driven somewhat more by a decline in physician services ("visiting your doctor") than by the hospital sector.
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Yanick J. S. Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Really shows how the incentives are totally out of whack... Money in US healthcare is made by maximizing the price and volume of elective procedures at the expense of everything else.
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Yanick J. S. Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
"We lost GDP because healthcare is missing out on their most important revenue driver and that is a bad thing" is the wrong framing. We shouldn't strive to maximize the GDP share of healthcare. Especially if their revenue is disconnected from health outcomes.
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Jeet Heer Apr 29
Some healthcare firms are in fact cutting pay for staff -- in the middle of a pandemic. It's nuts.
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Matt O'Brien Apr 29
I know doctors who are worried about getting furloughed right now. They live in parts of the country that aren’t swamped with covid-19 cases right now so they haven’t been called in to the ERs yet, and work in things like pediatrics that have seen demand collapse.
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Farzad Mostashari Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Not just elective procedures. Chronic disease management and preventive/primary care are also slashed, sparking layoffs among frontline primary care practices We will pay for those deferrals in more than just GDP unfortunately
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Brandon Vise Apr 29
Think about all the folks that will not catch there cancer early because they weren't able to get there screening. Think about all the people that suffer/die because they they are not getting medication management.
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ThePerpetualCampaign Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
Not just elective procedures. That may not even be the bulk of it. It’s delaying ALL noncritical care. My best friend - fellow UM alum - is an OB/GYN. He’s barely working except to deliver babies. He’s on half salary. Wife is a nurse anesthesiologist. Furloughed. 1/2
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ThePerpetualCampaign Apr 29
Replying to @JustinWolfers
And dentists aren’t doing ANYTHING except emergencies. 2/2
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