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John Mann
First elected MP for Bassetlaw in 2001. Not scared to say it how it is.
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John Mann 49m
Replying to @robfordmancs
And you point 2 is so wrong it is from my perspective astonishing and this I can prove to your satisfaction I am certain
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John Mann 49m
Replying to @robfordmancs
No , in Labour leave seats ( absolutely the opposite in say Tottenham, though it is Lewes where I was once Secretary that I have used ascthe contra )
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John Mann 51m
Replying to @robfordmancs
Understood. But it is precisely this that I am challenging. ( I have other none brexit analysis which is also hugely significant to the next election)
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John Mann 53m
As you know, such micro data is by definition electorally highly sensitive ( it would have been gold dust to the Brexit Party in Peterborough ) but happy to debate and/ or meet to take you through the analysis.
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John Mann 57m
Then let’s have the debate with you chairing it! It is more significant than most polling debates to what happens next.
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John Mann 1h
The difference is rather simple. My analysis is based on people who actually voted. You are simply wrong and very badly wrong in your assumptions. I challenge you to a public debate on this.
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John Mann retweeted
Alan Hinkes OBE 12h
Drax burning wood to produce electricity- lets call it biomass. Imported frm USA. Let's chop a forest down pellet it & ship it across the North Atlantic. Local coal wld be more environmentally friendly - oh wait we've closed all the coal mines. Playing devils advocate 😜😛😀👻
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John Mann retweeted
Nadine White 23h
Replying to @Nadine_Writes
: In March, I spoke to black football fans about enduring racism in the sport. 'What's new?,' many asked.
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John Mann retweeted
TellMAMAUK 23h
Katie Hopkins is using to solicit donations. Tommy Robinson was banned from the platform last year. As PayPal makes clear: “We do not allow PayPal services to be used to promote hate, violence, or other forms of intolerance that is discriminatory." Time to step up.
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John Mann 23h
A direct transfer of health resources from poorer areas to wealthier areas, leading to more city based centralised services and more health inequality . Appalling.
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John Mann Jun 18
Replying to @sundersays
The conundrum is Party this: Bassetlaw had its best ever and worst ever Labour results this year within 3 weeks of each other. Others simply had their worst ever ( eg Bolsover eg NE Derbyshire eg Rother Valley and many more )
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John Mann Jun 18
Replying to @sundersays
That’s lots of questions, not one. Nobody has yet done a 2017 completed analysis because it requires the manual ikputtingvof two marked registers. We have sampling and voter data of course already
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John Mann Jun 18
Fascinating, but those in addition those most likely to switch to stronger remain parties are also quite easy to identify from a good voter record database.
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John Mann Jun 18
1. Propensity to vote 2. Psychology of response on EU matters ( simplistically do people identify with their normal party on a referendum issue , if they differ is it temporary or permanent )
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John Mann Jun 18
My own analysis has no guesswork in it, just mathematics. Your starting point always has to be the marked register , people who actually vote and this is only useful if you have it over a long time series. Minehis 29?years. When you use opinion polling you have several problems.
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John Mann Jun 18
Your initial response is correct Tony. Can’t share metadata but I can demonstrate in great detail a 15 year analysis.
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John Mann Jun 18
Replying to @JohnMannMP
You then compare the sample with your voter returns, after you have put the marked register into your computer. Then you can be certain of how people voted, with very few errors. Especially where you do it every year.
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John Mann Jun 18
Replying to @JohnMannMP
Sampling is observing ballot counts in real time, and if done properly gives a 95% accuracy off results by ballot box. It tells you at the micro level how a small area votes.
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John Mann Jun 18
I don’t estimate, I sample with a 95%accuracy in all Elections.
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John Mann Jun 18
Oh dear, oh dear. In fact it is modelling based on sampling and repeat surveys. Which is why it was possible to predict the referendum with absolute accuracy. ( and why the pollsters called it so wrong)
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