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John Huber
Portfolio Manager at Saber Capital Management. Investing commentary at
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John Huber 12h
Such a simple concept when analyzing companies: is the business profitable? If not, why not? The best companies are profitable very early, with very few exceptions. “Scale” is often a buzzword. Be a little wary of unprofitable firms that reference the exceptions to raise funds.
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John Huber Dec 6
Replying to @rationalwalk
If recent history is a guide, I doubt AAPL slows the pace of buybacks as the share price climbs. They unfortunately seem to have a much greater appetite for their own shares when times are good. They nearly put a halt on the buybacks last December when the stock was very cheap
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John Huber Dec 5
Replying to @greg_ip
You let them in Greg, no questions asked. The value of that person not missing their flight is so much more significant that the extra 30 seconds that everyone else in line has to wait.
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John Huber Dec 3
I think the best advice from Buffett is the circle of competence. His circle is larger & he can expand it much more easily than we can, but that isn’t his best advantage; I think his biggest edge is he stays inside his circle more than we do. It’s hard to overstate the importance
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John Huber Dec 2
Here comes the “The Patriots are done” chorus. “The Patriots have failed Brady, and Brady has failed the Patriots”. (They’re 10-2). I’m an excited Bills fan, but it’s time to buy the dip on New England. Happens every year. They’ll win the AFC yet again
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John Huber Nov 26
Yeah, and I'm not trying to pick on BXC, just using it to make a point that a lot of complicated situations attract so much more interest than the simple ideas. I agree with your point, but I'd say the lack of comments on WFC is b/c of boredom more than appreciation of simplicity
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John Huber Nov 26
On Value Investors Club, there are 95 comments on the most recent (of three) writeups on . There are 0 comments on .
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John Huber Nov 25
Replying to @zero_coupon
Would love to see them do it again, but Foxboro in January is a little different😀. But I'd love to watch Belichick's gameplan for Jackson in a rematch
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John Huber Nov 25
Wow, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are good. And fun to watch. But New England will still (unfortunately) win the Super Bowl.
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John Huber Nov 25
Replying to @RamBhupatiraju
Thanks for reading, Ram!
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John Huber Nov 21
CBS down 30% since 2016 in a bull market, & the CEO gets $175 million, including $100m severance (even though he's not leaving)🤔In effect, CBS has been a legal money laundering shell for the various execs the past 2 decades. Good summary by
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John Huber Nov 21
Replying to @kjetilfn @DevinHaran
Yeah, in theory this makes sense. But in reality, many firms use scale as a buzzword and say they have operating leverage, but their results show a huge % of variable costs that never decline. e.g. content costs are more variable than fixed; CAC more variable than fixed, etc.
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John Huber Nov 20
Replying to @AverageD21
Yeah, what I meant is most competitors either have bigger balance sheets, or more diversified businesses that produce cash from other areas that can be diverted to content spend. NFLX doesn’t have this luxury. It has done great, but it does rely on access to cash from others
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John Huber Nov 20
Replying to @JohnHuber72
The pickle for NFLX, as much as I like the company, is that most of their competitors have hoards of cash and won’t be forced to cut content spend if that investor sentiment does change. So NFLX is forced to tighten their belt while their competitors are allowed to keep gorging
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John Huber Nov 20
My guess is content spend won’t stop growing until investor sentiment changes and funding gets tighter. If/when that occurs, stand alone streaming companies will have to live within their means. But again like oil, it won’t happen until investors are no longer content
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John Huber Nov 20
Replying to @KisitoWolf @ArdavanH
Maybe that happens. I’d like to see that, because I do like the recurring revenue aspect of the biz. But another thing oil men like to say is “we’ll be cash flow neutral next year”. And then next year comes and they repeat the refrain. Fear the same for content spend. “Next year”
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John Huber Nov 20
Streaming is the new oil. Investors are excited about it, so cash keeps flowing in, but will any come out? Adding content is like drilling new wells, and slowing content spend is like reducing oil production; you lose ground to the next guy. Tough business
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John Huber Nov 18
Successful example of 21st century bargaining power over distributors. Big Machine Label has to back down when faced with 100 million Instagram followers 😀
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John Huber Nov 17
One thing I'll never get is why people would prefer paying more dollars to the government now just to get those same dollars back next spring. This article basically recommends transferring (for free) the money-making potential of your dollars from yourself to the government:
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John Huber Nov 15
"Scale" isn't automatically a good thing. Scale is like leverage; it cuts both ways. e.g. if you have a business flipping homes and you lose $2k per house even before your fixed business expenses, then scale is going to only result in greater losses. Growth will destroy value
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