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Gregor Macdonald
Cannot believe is calling for $75 oil right as all the supermajors loudly slash spending, because even $100 oil is not enough.
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Chris Cook 30 Mar 14
Supply; demand; storage & unwind of prepay contracts. It'll go to or through $75 & rebound - cycles are hard-wired
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Gregor Macdonald 30 Mar 14
Replying to @nemo_incognito
@packetbrain Nothing assumed. Capex productivity in steep decline. Cost inflation sky high. story for years, now worse
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Brent oil at $75/bbl means London spot gold at $1125/ounce.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
I wanted to tweet a "Good luck" with that, but then you'd think I believe that gold at $1125 is not
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
possible. In fact, I do think it's possible, and that's why I would add the "Good luck".
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Gregor Macdonald 30 Mar 14
Replying to @VictorCleaner
I'm quaint + old-fashioned: I accept the overwhelming evidence that long run price of oil driven by cost of supply + demand.
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Gregor Macdonald 30 Mar 14
Replying to @VictorCleaner
My call is next repricing of oil now on horizon. And I agree, if no currency catches up to it then gold is likely candidate.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
Question is whether unconventional American oil is a flash in the pan or whether it can be sustained for 5-10 years.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
How do you get oil to $150/bbl? You'd have to prevent Iraq, Libya, Iran from returning to the market. Likely?
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
The war in Syria was called off on short notice () so I guess decision was "no".
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
For the Rest of the World it matters whether U.S. can eventually live without imports from the Arabian Gulf.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
If yes, they'll dump (=destabilize) Saudi Arabia and ROW will have to (continue to) pay the American price.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
Observation is the ROW is totally relaxed about availability of oil (no last minute panic fracking in Europe, China).
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
So I guess they have decided that U.S will have to continue to work with Saudi Arabia and cheap oil from Iran, Iraq will
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
eventually be available. Question is do they get this assessment right.
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Victor The Cleaner 30 Mar 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
Btw supermajor would also slash spending if they understand that there will be lots of **cheap** oil coming to the market.
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Archer 31 Mar 14
About 5 to 7 years is about it. That's what will pass for sustainability.
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Gregor Macdonald 2 Apr 14
Replying to @VictorCleaner
. Just to remind, I am strongly of view historic story since year 2000: oil shifted from political to geology-driven market.
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Victor The Cleaner 2 Apr 14
Replying to @GregorMacdonald
It's not geology. It's the existence of the Euro. Even better, it was predicted well in advance:
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