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Matthew Goodwin
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Matthew Goodwin 5h
Replying to @benwansell @simonjhix
Hope you put a bet on Ben ;-)
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Matthew Goodwin 6h
Gamblers and Average Joe on the street were closer to predicting the outcome of Britain's general election than academics who study politics ... eek!
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Matthew Goodwin 7h
The striking rise of the SNP 2005: 6 2010: 6 2015: 56 2017: 35 2019: 48
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Matthew Goodwin 7h
Might this be part of the puzzle? Boris Johnson's invasion of Labour's heartlands was made much easier by a Labour Party that has become much less representative of the very communities that it was founded to represent Source:
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Matthew Goodwin 8h
Replying to @robertshrimsley
Hi Robert, as I say no easy answers for Lab or centre left across EU. My pt that much of the debate on Twitter over past yr was very one sided. "Shift to Remain!" Very few bothered to ask or consider what counter-backlash would be or how that would consolidate around Cons.
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Matthew Goodwin 8h
Replying to @Samfr @chriscurtis94
That's a very narrow reading. We know that many of the policies advocated by Labour are popular.
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Matthew Goodwin 9h
The strange decline of the Liberal Democrats 2001: 52 2005: 62 2010: 57 2015: 8 2017: 12 2019: 11 Big questions
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Matthew Goodwin 10h
Replying to @PCollinsTimes
I agree. Have a piece tomorrow in S Times on Labour tensions. Agree on leader. Only Blair managed it in recent times as you know!
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Matthew Goodwin 10h
Replying to @Bonn1eGreer
Oh please dont do the British Trump thing. It just doesn't stack up Bonnie
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Matthew Goodwin 10h
Replying to @PCollinsTimes
Corbynistas are concluding their failure is due to Brexit or leader. Both are surface issues. It's about deeper contradictions within the centre-left electorate that are bringing down similar parties across globe. I'm hearing a lot from them about leaders. Not a lot about ideas.
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @Samfr @chriscurtis94
Wasn't that about a year ago? And my point which very few people had made was that much of Labour's (non-Brexit) agenda is popular.
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @JolyonMaugham
Have a great Christmas Jolyon
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @JolyonMaugham
You cant stop yourself can you?
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @PCollinsTimes
Well arguably the heavily criticised strategy of ambiguity did better in 2017 than turning up the volume on Remain did in 2019. But when we get individual data we will have a clearer picture.
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @JolyonMaugham
There you again. It's nnecessary Jolyon. And I suspect that the angry, bitter, vindictive wing of Remainia is partly why voters didn't fancy another few years trying to talk it out. Well, I guess you've got a long time now to reflect on where things went wrong. Best wishes, Matt
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @PCollinsTimes
Crikey we finally agree Phil! I've said since 2016 we should respect vote and leave. For Lab, no easy answers, structurally unsound electorate now, but speaking only to Remainia fuelled long time coming backlash that consolidated around Cons. Was obviously going to happen
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @chriscurtis94
It was a very narrow view of the Labour electorate & geography. There were no easy answers for Labour, on that I agree. But much of the analysis on here was rather insular, ignorant of how others would respond and, I suspect, driven quite a bit by motivated reasoning
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @JolyonMaugham
Oh hi Jolyon! I think my analysis is fine thanks, seems to have been pretty spot on. Maybe you guys should have engaged with the research a bit more before trashing everybody you disagree with as racist, fascist, far right etc etc. Guess that wasnt a vote winner. Have a good day.
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @chriscurtis94
I watched the debate with interest. It was very narrow. "Lab should push pedal down on Remain bc most Lab voters back Remain". But completely ignored message would send to others who reshuffled around Cons. Nightmare position for Lab but narrow debate did not help.
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Matthew Goodwin 11h
Replying to @Samfr @chriscurtis94
Er that's a different point Sam. As you know I never said Labour would win. I said their core policies had more support than many think. Johnson's drift and success partly speaks to that. While many voters clearly prioritised culture over economics, as I have argued for a while
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