What I'm keeping my eye on. So far Dems are swinging districts enuf from prior prez vote to foretell strong 2018. Key test next week in GA-6
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I'd argue Ossoff needs to win either next Tuesday or in the runoff for it to be a strong result for Dems.
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I would expect Democrats to do worse than expected in some upcoming specials. (See PA-12 2010.) The key will be the average.
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Lean vs. result has been fairly predictive of result in midterm.
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In case it's helpful, we've also been compiling this: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d
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Nice. Didn't know if y'all were still updating it. Was there an LA special State House or Senate election a few weeks ago?
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Not necessarily. Probably as a group yes, but you reduce the sample size & allow for outliers.
Has someone calculated weighted average of last two presidential elections by state?
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